Predictions › Europa League › AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus

Europa LeagueThu 5 Nov, 20:00 UTC

AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus prediction

AFAS Stadion

AZ AlkmaarHome

1.21 : 1.49

expected goals

JuventusAway

30%AZ Alkmaar

27%Draw

43%Juventus

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.31

Quick answer

Our prediction for AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus is Juventus to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

Prediction: Juventus to win
Chance: 43%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: AZ Alkmaar 1.2, Juventus 1.5
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.31
Both teams to score: 55%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

77% chanceFair price 1.312 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

AZ Alkmaar to win

29% chancePrice 3.451 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives AZ Alkmaar 30%, the draw 27% and Juventus 43%. The bookmakers agree and make Juventus the favourite at 2.00.
2
Recent form
AZ Alkmaar took 7 points from their last 5 games and Juventus took 8 from 5. Juventus come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
AZ Alkmaar won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Juventus won 5 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
AZ Alkmaar score 1.9 goals a game and let in 1.3. Juventus score 1.5 and let in 0.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of AZ Alkmaar games and 6 of Juventus games in that run.
5
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

AZ Alkmaarrecent form+1%
AZ Alkmaarrest between games-5%
Juventusrest between games-5%

AZ Alkmaar form D W D W LJuventus form D D L W DHome edge in this league 19% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus: Juventus shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

AZ Alkmaar host Juventus in the Europa League on Thu 5 Nov, 20:00 at AFAS Stadion. Our prediction for AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus is Juventus to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

AZ Alkmaar form

AZ Alkmaar have 9 wins, 7 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 37 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, W, L, newest first.

Juventus form

Juventus have 10 wins, 7 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 17 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, W, D, newest first.

Our call

We expect AZ Alkmaar to score about 1.2 goals and Juventus about 1.5. That points to Juventus to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31. Our bold bet is AZ Alkmaar to win at 3.45.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	AZ Alkmaar	Juventus
Games played	20	20
Wins	9	10
Draws	7	7
Losses	4	3
Goals scored	37	30
Goals conceded	25	17
Scored per game	1.9	1.5
Conceded per game	1.3	0.8
Home record	5W 4D 1L	5W 4D 2L
Away record	4W 3D 3L	5W 3D 1L
Clean sheets	30%	50%
Both teams scored	50%	40%
Over 2.5 goals	55%	30%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
AZ Alkmaar to win	29%	3.49	3.45	-1.3%
A Draw	26%	3.86	3.60	-6.6%
Juventus to win	42%	2.36	2.00	-15.4%
Over 2.5 goals	48%	2.07	1.77	-14.4%
Under 2.5 goals	46%	2.18	1.95	-10.6%
AZ Alkmaar +0.5	50%	2.01	1.71	-14.6%
Juventus -0.5	44%	2.25	1.91	-15.3%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	76%	1.32
Over 2.5 goals	51%	1.98
Over 3.5 goals	28%	3.51
Both teams to score	55%	1.82
AZ Alkmaar or Draw	57%	1.76
Juventus or Draw	70%	1.43
AZ Alkmaar to win and Over 2.5	18%	5.67
Juventus to win and Over 2.5	26%	3.81
AZ Alkmaar clean sheet	23%	4.44
Juventus clean sheet	30%	3.34

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.9%

0-19.3%

1-29.0%

0-27.5%

0-07.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news

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4 Oct 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus?

Our prediction for AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus is Juventus to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

What is the score prediction for AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 1-2. We expect AZ Alkmaar to score 1.2 goals and Juventus 1.5.

Will both teams score in AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus?

Both teams to score has a 55% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of AZ Alkmaar last 20 games and 8 of Juventus last 20.

How are AZ Alkmaar playing?

How are Juventus playing?

What is the best bet for AZ Alkmaar vs Juventus?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.31, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in AZ Alkmaar against Juventus. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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