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Predictions › Brazil › Bahia vs Coritiba
BrasileiraoSat 21 Nov, 20:30 Brazil time

Bahia vs Coritiba prediction

Arena Fonte Nova

BahiaHome
1.84 : 0.92
expected goals
CoritibaAway
58%Bahia
24%Draw
18%Coritiba
Eagle safe pickBahia or Draw
1.22

Quick answer

Our prediction for Bahia vs Coritiba is Bahia to win, with a 58% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Bahia or Draw at 1.22.

Prediction
Bahia to win
Chance
58%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Bahia 1.8, Coritiba 0.9
Best bet
Bahia or Draw at 1.22
Both teams to score
51%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Bahia or Draw
82% chanceFair price 1.222 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Bahia to win and Over 2.5
36% chanceFair price 2.791 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Bahia 58%, the draw 24% and Coritiba 18%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Bahia took 7 points from their last 5 games and Coritiba took 4 from 5. Bahia come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Bahia won 6 of their last 10 games at home. Coritiba won 2 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Bahia score 1.5 goals a game and let in 1.4. Coritiba score 1.2 and let in 1.7. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Bahia games and 12 of Coritiba games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Bahia won 0 and Coritiba won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Coritiba 3, Bahia 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Bahia or Draw has a 82% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Coritibarecent form-3%
Bahia form L W D L WCoritiba form L W L L DHome edge in this league 40% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Bahia vs Coritiba: Bahia are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Bahia host Coritiba in the Brasileirao on Sat 21 Nov, 20:30 at Arena Fonte Nova. Our prediction for Bahia vs Coritiba is Bahia to win, with a 58% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Bahia or Draw at 1.22.

Bahia form

Bahia have 8 wins, 7 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, L, W, newest first.

Coritiba form

Coritiba have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 34 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, L, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Bahia won 0, Coritiba won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Coritiba 3, Bahia 2.

Our call

We expect Bahia to score about 1.8 goals and Coritiba about 0.9. That points to Bahia to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Bahia or Draw at 1.22. Our bold bet is Bahia to win and Over 2.5 at 2.79.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

BahiaCoritiba
Games played2020
Wins86
Draws75
Losses59
Goals scored3024
Goals conceded2734
Scored per game1.51.2
Conceded per game1.41.7
Home record6W 3D 1L4W 3D 4L
Away record2W 4D 4L2W 2D 5L
Clean sheets25%15%
Both teams scored65%50%
Over 2.5 goals50%60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals77%1.30
Over 2.5 goals52%1.92
Over 3.5 goals30%3.35
Both teams to score51%1.96
Bahia or Draw82%1.22
Coritiba or Draw42%2.41
Bahia to win and Over 2.537%2.73
Coritiba to win and Over 2.510%10.10
Bahia clean sheet40%2.50
Coritiba clean sheet16%6.30

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.4%
1-011.0%
2-010.7%
2-19.9%
0-07.0%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Bahia vs Coritiba?

Our prediction for Bahia vs Coritiba is Bahia to win, with a 58% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Bahia or Draw at 1.22.

What is the score prediction for Bahia vs Coritiba?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-0. We expect Bahia to score 1.8 goals and Coritiba 0.9.

Will both teams score in Bahia vs Coritiba?

Both teams to score has a 51% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Bahia last 20 games and 10 of Coritiba last 20.

How are Bahia playing?

Bahia have 8 wins, 7 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, L, W, newest first.

How are Coritiba playing?

Coritiba have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 34 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, L, D, newest first.

What happened when Bahia and Coritiba last met?

It ended Coritiba 3, Bahia 2. In the last 1 meeting Bahia won 0 and Coritiba won 1.

What is the best bet for Bahia vs Coritiba?

Bahia or Draw at 1.22, with a 82% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Bahia against Coritiba. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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