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Predictions › Brazil › Bahia vs Flamengo
BrasileiraoSun 18 Oct, 21:30 Brazil time

Bahia vs Flamengo prediction

Arena Fonte Nova

BahiaHome
1.16 : 1.57
expected goals
FlamengoAway
28%Bahia
26%Draw
46%Flamengo
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.32

Quick answer

Our prediction for Bahia vs Flamengo is Flamengo to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.32.

Prediction
Flamengo to win
Chance
46%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Bahia 1.2, Flamengo 1.6
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.32
Both teams to score
55%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
76% chanceFair price 1.322 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Flamengo to win and Over 2.5
28% chanceFair price 3.581 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Bahia 28%, the draw 26% and Flamengo 46%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Bahia took 12 points from their last 5 games and Flamengo took 13 from 5. Flamengo come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Bahia won 4 of their last 10 games at home. Flamengo won 4 of their last 8 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Bahia score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.4. Flamengo score 1.9 and let in 0.7. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Bahia games and 10 of Flamengo games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Bahia won 1 and Flamengo won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Flamengo 2, Bahia 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Bahiarecent form+4%
  • Flamengorecent form+6%
Bahia form L W W W WFlamengo form W D W W WHome edge in this league 39% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Bahia vs Flamengo: Flamengo are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Bahia host Flamengo in the Brasileirao on Sun 18 Oct, 21:30 at Arena Fonte Nova. Our prediction for Bahia vs Flamengo is Flamengo to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.32.

Bahia form

Bahia have 7 wins, 8 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, W, newest first.

Flamengo form

Flamengo have 13 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 38 goals scored and 14 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 8. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Bahia won 1, Flamengo won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Flamengo 2, Bahia 0.

Our call

We expect Bahia to score about 1.2 goals and Flamengo about 1.6. That points to Flamengo to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.32. Our bold bet is Flamengo to win and Over 2.5 at 3.58.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

BahiaFlamengo
Games played2020
Wins713
Draws85
Losses52
Goals scored3138
Goals conceded2814
Scored per game1.61.9
Conceded per game1.40.7
Home record4W 4D 2L9W 2D 1L
Away record3W 4D 3L4W 3D 1L
Clean sheets20%45%
Both teams scored75%50%
Over 2.5 goals60%50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals76%1.31
Over 2.5 goals51%1.94
Over 3.5 goals29%3.41
Both teams to score55%1.81
Bahia or Draw54%1.85
Flamengo or Draw72%1.38
Bahia to win and Over 2.516%6.14
Flamengo to win and Over 2.528%3.51
Bahia clean sheet21%4.80
Flamengo clean sheet31%3.20

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.6%
0-19.5%
1-29.3%
0-28.0%
0-07.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Bahia vs Flamengo?

Our prediction for Bahia vs Flamengo is Flamengo to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.32.

What is the score prediction for Bahia vs Flamengo?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 1-2. We expect Bahia to score 1.2 goals and Flamengo 1.6.

Will both teams score in Bahia vs Flamengo?

Both teams to score has a 55% chance. Both sides scored in 15 of Bahia last 20 games and 10 of Flamengo last 20.

How are Bahia playing?

Bahia have 7 wins, 8 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, W, newest first.

How are Flamengo playing?

Flamengo have 13 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 38 goals scored and 14 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 8. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Bahia and Flamengo last met?

It ended Flamengo 2, Bahia 0. In the last 2 meetings Bahia won 1 and Flamengo won 1.

What is the best bet for Bahia vs Flamengo?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.32, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Bahia against Flamengo. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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