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Predictions › Brazil › Bahia vs Mirassol
BrasileiraoSun 11 Oct, 22:30 Brazil time

Bahia vs Mirassol prediction

Arena Fonte Nova

BahiaHome
1.64 : 0.84
expected goals
MirassolAway
56%Bahia
26%Draw
18%Mirassol
Eagle safe pickBahia or Draw
1.26

Quick answer

Our prediction for Bahia vs Mirassol is Bahia to win, with a 56% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Bahia or Draw at 1.26.

Prediction
Bahia to win
Chance
56%
Most likely score
1-0
Expected goals
Bahia 1.6, Mirassol 0.8
Best bet
Bahia or Draw at 1.26
Both teams to score
47%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Bahia or Draw
79% chanceFair price 1.262 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Bahia to win and Over 2.5
30% chanceFair price 3.281 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Bahia 56%, the draw 26% and Mirassol 18%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Bahia took 12 points from their last 5 games and Mirassol took 8 from 5. Bahia come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Bahia won 4 of their last 10 games at home. Mirassol won 2 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Bahia score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.4. Mirassol score 1.1 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Bahia games and 8 of Mirassol games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Bahia won 1 and Mirassol won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Mirassol 1, Bahia 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Bahia or Draw has a 79% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Bahiarecent form+4%
  • Mirassolrecent form+1%
Bahia form L W W W WMirassol form W D W L DHome edge in this league 38% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Bahia vs Mirassol: Bahia are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Bahia host Mirassol in the Brasileirao on Sun 11 Oct, 22:30 at Arena Fonte Nova. Our prediction for Bahia vs Mirassol is Bahia to win, with a 56% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Bahia or Draw at 1.26.

Bahia form

Bahia have 7 wins, 8 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, W, newest first.

Mirassol form

Mirassol have 7 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, L, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Bahia won 1, Mirassol won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Mirassol 1, Bahia 2.

Our call

We expect Bahia to score about 1.6 goals and Mirassol about 0.8. That points to Bahia to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Bahia or Draw at 1.26. Our bold bet is Bahia to win and Over 2.5 at 3.28.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

BahiaMirassol
Games played2020
Wins77
Draws87
Losses56
Goals scored3123
Goals conceded2826
Scored per game1.61.1
Conceded per game1.41.3
Home record4W 4D 2L5W 4D 1L
Away record3W 4D 3L2W 3D 5L
Clean sheets20%20%
Both teams scored75%65%
Over 2.5 goals60%40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals72%1.40
Over 2.5 goals45%2.21
Over 3.5 goals24%4.18
Both teams to score47%2.15
Bahia or Draw82%1.23
Mirassol or Draw44%2.26
Bahia to win and Over 2.531%3.18
Mirassol to win and Over 2.59%10.92
Bahia clean sheet43%2.32
Mirassol clean sheet19%5.18

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-013.0%
1-112.2%
2-011.2%
2-19.5%
0-09.0%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Bahia vs Mirassol?

Our prediction for Bahia vs Mirassol is Bahia to win, with a 56% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Bahia or Draw at 1.26.

What is the score prediction for Bahia vs Mirassol?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 2-0. We expect Bahia to score 1.6 goals and Mirassol 0.8.

Will both teams score in Bahia vs Mirassol?

Both teams to score has a 47% chance. Both sides scored in 15 of Bahia last 20 games and 13 of Mirassol last 20.

How are Bahia playing?

Bahia have 7 wins, 8 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, W, newest first.

How are Mirassol playing?

Mirassol have 7 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, L, D, newest first.

What happened when Bahia and Mirassol last met?

It ended Mirassol 1, Bahia 2. In the last 1 meeting Bahia won 1 and Mirassol won 0.

What is the best bet for Bahia vs Mirassol?

Bahia or Draw at 1.26, with a 79% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Bahia against Mirassol. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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