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Predictions › Brazil › Bahia vs São Paulo
BrasileiraoThu 29 Oct, 00:30 Brazil time

Bahia vs São Paulo prediction

Arena Fonte Nova

BahiaHome
1.46 : 0.68
expected goals
São PauloAway
55%Bahia
28%Draw
17%São Paulo
Eagle safe pickBahia or Draw
1.21

Quick answer

Our prediction for Bahia vs São Paulo is Bahia to win, with a 55% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Bahia or Draw at 1.21.

Prediction
Bahia to win
Chance
55%
Most likely score
1-0
Expected goals
Bahia 1.5, São Paulo 0.7
Best bet
Bahia or Draw at 1.21
Both teams to score
38%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Bahia or Draw
83% chanceFair price 1.212 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Bahia to win and Over 2.5
25% chanceFair price 3.991 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Bahia 55%, the draw 28% and São Paulo 17%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Bahia took 6 points from their last 5 games and São Paulo took 9 from 5. São Paulo come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Bahia won 5 of their last 11 games at home. São Paulo won 0 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Bahia score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.4. São Paulo score 1.1 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Bahia games and 9 of São Paulo games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Bahia won 0 and São Paulo won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended São Paulo 2, Bahia 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Bahia or Draw has a 83% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Bahiarest between games-5%
  • São Paulorest between games-5%
Bahia form D W L L WSão Paulo form D W L L WHome edge in this league 39% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Bahia vs São Paulo: Bahia are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Bahia host São Paulo in the Brasileirao on Thu 29 Oct, 00:30 at Arena Fonte Nova. Our prediction for Bahia vs São Paulo is Bahia to win, with a 55% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Bahia or Draw at 1.21.

Bahia form

Bahia have 7 wins, 8 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, L, W, newest first.

São Paulo form

São Paulo have 6 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 1 draw and 8 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Bahia won 0, São Paulo won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished São Paulo 2, Bahia 2.

Our call

We expect Bahia to score about 1.5 goals and São Paulo about 0.7. That points to Bahia to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Bahia or Draw at 1.21. Our bold bet is Bahia to win and Over 2.5 at 3.99.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

BahiaSão Paulo
Games played2020
Wins76
Draws84
Losses510
Goals scored2921
Goals conceded2726
Scored per game1.41.1
Conceded per game1.41.3
Home record5W 4D 2L6W 3D 2L
Away record2W 4D 3L0W 1D 8L
Clean sheets25%20%
Both teams scored65%60%
Over 2.5 goals55%45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals64%1.57
Over 2.5 goals36%2.79
Over 3.5 goals17%5.97
Both teams to score38%2.60
Bahia or Draw83%1.20
São Paulo or Draw45%2.23
Bahia to win and Over 2.526%3.83
São Paulo to win and Over 2.57%15.16
Bahia clean sheet51%1.97
São Paulo clean sheet23%4.28

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-016.6%
0-012.6%
2-012.6%
1-112.4%
2-18.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Bahia vs São Paulo?

Our prediction for Bahia vs São Paulo is Bahia to win, with a 55% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Bahia or Draw at 1.21.

What is the score prediction for Bahia vs São Paulo?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 0-0 and 2-0. We expect Bahia to score 1.5 goals and São Paulo 0.7.

Will both teams score in Bahia vs São Paulo?

Both teams to score has a 38% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Bahia last 20 games and 12 of São Paulo last 20.

How are Bahia playing?

Bahia have 7 wins, 8 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, L, W, newest first.

How are São Paulo playing?

São Paulo have 6 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 1 draw and 8 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, L, W, newest first.

What happened when Bahia and São Paulo last met?

It ended São Paulo 2, Bahia 2. In the last 2 meetings Bahia won 0 and São Paulo won 1.

What is the best bet for Bahia vs São Paulo?

Bahia or Draw at 1.21, with a 83% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Bahia against São Paulo. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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