Predictions › Argentina › Banfield vs Rosario Central

Argentina Liga ProfesionalTue 6 Oct, 00:15 Argentina time

Banfield vs Rosario Central prediction

Florencio Solá

BanfieldHome

0.93 : 1.47

expected goals

Rosario CentralAway

23%Banfield

28%Draw

49%Rosario Central

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.31

Quick answer

Our prediction for Banfield vs Rosario Central is Rosario Central to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31.

Prediction: Rosario Central to win
Chance: 49%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Banfield 0.9, Rosario Central 1.5
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.31
Both teams to score: 47%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

77% chanceFair price 1.312 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Rosario Central to win and Over 2.5

26% chanceFair price 3.881 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Banfield 23%, the draw 28% and Rosario Central 49%. The bookmakers agree and make Rosario Central the favourite at 1.87.
2
Recent form
Banfield took 2 points from their last 5 games and Rosario Central took 8 from 5. Rosario Central come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Banfield won 3 of their last 8 games at home. Rosario Central won 4 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Banfield score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.4. Rosario Central score 1.3 and let in 0.7. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Banfield games and 8 of Rosario Central games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Banfield won 0 and Rosario Central won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Rosario Central 2, Banfield 1.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Banfieldrecent form-1%
Rosario Centralrecent form+3%

Banfield form D D W L LRosario Central form W W W D LHome edge in this league 25% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Banfield vs Rosario Central: Rosario Central are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Banfield host Rosario Central in the Argentina Liga Profesional on Tue 6 Oct, 00:15 at Florencio Solá. Our prediction for Banfield vs Rosario Central is Rosario Central to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31.

Banfield form

Banfield have 5 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 29 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read D, D, L, L, L, newest first.

Rosario Central form

Rosario Central have 10 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 14 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, L, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Banfield won 0, Rosario Central won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Rosario Central 2, Banfield 1.

Our call

We expect Banfield to score about 0.9 goals and Rosario Central about 1.5. That points to Rosario Central to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31. Our bold bet is Rosario Central to win and Over 2.5 at 3.88.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Banfield	Rosario Central
Games played	20	20
Wins	5	10
Draws	5	5
Losses	10	5
Goals scored	22	25
Goals conceded	29	14
Scored per game	1.1	1.3
Conceded per game	1.4	0.7
Home record	3W 2D 3L	6W 4D 1L
Away record	2W 3D 7L	4W 1D 4L
Clean sheets	25%	45%
Both teams scored	60%	40%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Banfield to win	22%	4.45	4.10	-7.9%
A Draw	27%	3.73	3.25	-12.9%
Rosario Central to win	46%	2.17	1.87	-14.0%
Over 2.5 goals	40%	2.53	2.15	-15.0%
Under 2.5 goals	54%	1.84	1.59	-13.9%
Banfield +0.5	47%	2.12	1.80	-15.2%
Rosario Central -0.5	47%	2.15	1.80	-16.1%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	70%	1.43
Over 2.5 goals	43%	2.32
Over 3.5 goals	22%	4.50
Both teams to score	47%	2.11
Banfield or Draw	51%	1.96
Rosario Central or Draw	77%	1.30
Banfield to win and Over 2.5	11%	8.71
Rosario Central to win and Over 2.5	27%	3.75
Banfield clean sheet	23%	4.37
Rosario Central clean sheet	39%	2.53

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.1%

0-112.6%

0-29.8%

0-09.8%

1-29.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Banfield vs Rosario Central?

Our prediction for Banfield vs Rosario Central is Rosario Central to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31.

What is the score prediction for Banfield vs Rosario Central?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 0-2. We expect Banfield to score 0.9 goals and Rosario Central 1.5.

Will both teams score in Banfield vs Rosario Central?

Both teams to score has a 47% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Banfield last 20 games and 8 of Rosario Central last 20.

How are Banfield playing?

How are Rosario Central playing?

What happened when Banfield and Rosario Central last met?

It ended Rosario Central 2, Banfield 1. In the last 1 meeting Banfield won 0 and Rosario Central won 1.

What is the best bet for Banfield vs Rosario Central?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.31, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Banfield against Rosario Central. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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