Predictions › Spain › Barcelona vs Alavés

LaLigaSat 31 Oct, 20:00 Spain time

Barcelona vs Alavés prediction

Spotify Camp Nou

BarcelonaHome

2.70 : 0.58

expected goals

AlavésAway

82%Barcelona

13%Draw

5%Alavés

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.20

Quick answer

Our prediction for Barcelona vs Alavés is Barcelona to win, with a 82% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.20.

Prediction: Barcelona to win
Chance: 82%
Most likely score: 2-0
Expected goals: Barcelona 2.7, Alavés 0.6
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.20
Both teams to score: 41%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

84% chanceFair price 1.202 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Barcelona to win and both score

28% chanceFair price 3.511 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Barcelona 82%, the draw 13% and Alavés 5%. The bookmakers agree and make Barcelona the favourite at 1.15.
2
Recent form
Barcelona took 12 points from their last 5 games and Alavés took 1 from 5. Barcelona come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Barcelona won 8 of their last 8 games at home. Alavés won 2 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Barcelona score 3.1 goals a game and let in 1.1. Alavés score 1.6 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 15 of Barcelona games and 12 of Alavés games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Barcelona won 1 and Alavés won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Alavés 1, Barcelona 0.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 84% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Barcelonarecent form+6%
Alavésrecent form-6%
Barcelonarest between games-5%

Barcelona form D W W W WAlavés form L L D L LHome edge in this league 34% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Barcelona vs Alavés: Barcelona are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Barcelona host Alavés in the LaLiga on Sat 31 Oct, 20:00 at Spotify Camp Nou. Our prediction for Barcelona vs Alavés is Barcelona to win, with a 82% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.20.

Barcelona form

Barcelona have 17 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 63 goals scored and 22 conceded. At home they have 8 wins, 0 draws and 0 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, W, newest first.

Alavés form

Alavés have 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Barcelona won 1, Alavés won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Alavés 1, Barcelona 0.

Our call

We expect Barcelona to score about 2.7 goals and Alavés about 0.6. That points to Barcelona to win, with 2-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.20. Our bold bet is Barcelona to win and both score at 3.51.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Barcelona	Alavés
Games played	20	20
Wins	17	7
Draws	0	6
Losses	3	7
Goals scored	63	32
Goals conceded	22	29
Scored per game	3.1	1.6
Conceded per game	1.1	1.4
Home record	8W 0D 0L	5W 2D 4L
Away record	9W 0D 3L	2W 4D 3L
Clean sheets	35%	25%
Both teams scored	60%	70%
Over 2.5 goals	75%	60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Barcelona to win	81%	1.23	1.15	-6.5%
A Draw	13%	7.81	7.00	-10.4%
Alavés to win	5%	21.01	18.00	-14.3%
Over 3.5 goals	51%	1.95	1.61	-17.5%
Under 3.5 goals	44%	2.25	2.20	-2.2%
Barcelona -2.5	45%	2.21	1.87	-15.6%
Alavés +2.5	51%	1.97	1.77	-10.4%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	84%	1.19
Over 2.5 goals	64%	1.57
Over 3.5 goals	42%	2.41
Both teams to score	41%	2.41
Barcelona or Draw	95%	1.06
Alavés or Draw	18%	5.43
Barcelona to win and Over 2.5	58%	1.72
Alavés to win and Over 2.5	3%	35.32
Barcelona clean sheet	56%	1.79
Alavés clean sheet	7%	14.87

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-013.7%

3-012.3%

1-09.8%

4-08.3%

2-18.0%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news

Champions League

Barcelona Captain Raphinha Shrugs Off PSG Defeat Before El Clasico

Barcelona captain Raphinha says their 4-2 defeat against PSG will not affect their preparations for the upcoming clash with Real Madrid.

9 hours ago

Premier League

Ronald Araújo Impresses at Liverpool as Loan Move Pays Off

Ronald Araújo is thriving on loan at Liverpool from Barcelona, scoring twice in 11 games while adapting to multiple defensive roles.

10 hours ago

Champions League

Barcelona Complain to UEFA Over Chainsaw Display by PSG Fans

Barcelona have reported PSG to UEFA after Parisian supporters displayed an aggressive pre match banner.

22 hours ago

Questions people ask

Who will win Barcelona vs Alavés?

Our prediction for Barcelona vs Alavés is Barcelona to win, with a 82% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.20.

What is the score prediction for Barcelona vs Alavés?

2-0 is the most likely score, followed by 3-0 and 1-0. We expect Barcelona to score 2.7 goals and Alavés 0.6.

Will both teams score in Barcelona vs Alavés?

Both teams to score has a 41% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Barcelona last 20 games and 14 of Alavés last 20.

How are Barcelona playing?

How are Alavés playing?

What happened when Barcelona and Alavés last met?

It ended Alavés 1, Barcelona 0. In the last 2 meetings Barcelona won 1 and Alavés won 1.

What is the best bet for Barcelona vs Alavés?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.20, with a 84% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Barcelona against Alavés. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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