Predictions › Europa League › Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille

Europa LeagueThu 5 Nov, 20:00 UTC

Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille prediction

BayArena

Bayer LeverkusenHome

2.29 : 1.08

expected goals

MarseilleAway

64%Leverkusen

20%Draw

16%Marseille

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.17

Quick answer

Our prediction for Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille is Bayer Leverkusen to win, with a 64% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.17.

Prediction: Bayer Leverkusen to win
Chance: 64%
Most likely score: 2-1
Expected goals: Bayer Leverkusen 2.3, Marseille 1.1
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.17
Both teams to score: 60%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

86% chanceFair price 1.172 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Bayer Leverkusen to win and both score

33% chanceFair price 3.031 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Bayer Leverkusen 64%, the draw 20% and Marseille 16%. The bookmakers agree and make Bayer Leverkusen the favourite at 1.42.
2
Recent form
Bayer Leverkusen took 12 points from their last 5 games and Marseille took 9 from 5. Bayer Leverkusen come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Bayer Leverkusen won 6 of their last 9 games at home. Marseille won 3 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Bayer Leverkusen score 2.2 goals a game and let in 1.4. Marseille score 1.5 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of Bayer Leverkusen games and 11 of Marseille games in that run.
5
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 86% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Leverkusenrecent form+6%
Leverkusenrest between games-5%
Marseillerest between games-5%

Leverkusen form D W W W WMarseille form D L W L WHome edge in this league 19% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille: Bayer Leverkusen are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Bayer Leverkusen host Marseille in the Europa League on Thu 5 Nov, 20:00 at BayArena. Our prediction for Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille is Bayer Leverkusen to win, with a 64% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.17.

Bayer Leverkusen form

Bayer Leverkusen have 11 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 44 goals scored and 29 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, W, newest first.

Marseille form

Marseille have 8 wins, 1 draw and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 31 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 0 draws and 7 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, L, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect Bayer Leverkusen to score about 2.3 goals and Marseille about 1.1. That points to Bayer Leverkusen to win, with 2-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.17. Our bold bet is Bayer Leverkusen to win and both score at 3.03.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Leverkusen	Marseille
Games played	20	20
Wins	11	8
Draws	4	1
Losses	5	11
Goals scored	44	30
Goals conceded	29	31
Scored per game	2.2	1.5
Conceded per game	1.4	1.6
Home record	6W 2D 1L	5W 1D 4L
Away record	5W 2D 4L	3W 0D 7L
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Both teams scored	60%	50%
Over 2.5 goals	65%	55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Bayer Leverkusen to win	61%	1.64	1.42	-13.4%
A Draw	19%	5.13	4.90	-4.5%
Marseille to win	16%	6.26	6.00	-4.2%
Over 3.5 goals	43%	2.35	2.15	-8.6%
Under 3.5 goals	52%	1.94	1.65	-15.0%
Bayer Leverkusen -1.5	44%	2.30	1.95	-15.0%
Marseille +1.5	51%	1.97	1.67	-15.6%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	85%	1.17
Over 2.5 goals	65%	1.53
Over 3.5 goals	44%	2.30
Both teams to score	60%	1.67
Bayer Leverkusen or Draw	84%	1.19
Marseille or Draw	36%	2.78
Bayer Leverkusen to win and Over 2.5	48%	2.10
Marseille to win and Over 2.5	11%	9.23
Bayer Leverkusen clean sheet	34%	2.94
Marseille clean sheet	10%	9.90

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-19.7%

2-09.0%

1-19.0%

3-17.4%

1-07.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news

Premier League

Real Madrid Eye Bayer Leverkusen Star Jarell Quansah

Real Madrid are tracking former Liverpool defender Jarell Quansah ahead of next summer, while several Premier League clubs eye Jules Kounde.

1 Oct 2026

Premier League

Is Liverpool Giving Up on Florian Wirtz Too Soon?

Florian Wirtz has struggled to match his Leverkusen form at Liverpool, but stats show why the club made a record investment.

22 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille?

Our prediction for Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille is Bayer Leverkusen to win, with a 64% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.17.

What is the score prediction for Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille?

2-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-0 and 1-1. We expect Bayer Leverkusen to score 2.3 goals and Marseille 1.1.

Will both teams score in Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille?

Both teams to score has a 60% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Bayer Leverkusen last 20 games and 10 of Marseille last 20.

How are Bayer Leverkusen playing?

How are Marseille playing?

What is the best bet for Bayer Leverkusen vs Marseille?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.17, with a 86% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Leverkusen against Marseille. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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