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Predictions › Germany › Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg
BundesligaSun 18 Oct, 13:30 Germany time

Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg prediction

BayArena

Bayer LeverkusenHome
2.16 : 0.97
expected goals
SC FreiburgAway
64%Leverkusen
21%Draw
15%Freiburg
Eagle safe pickBayer Leverkusen or Draw
1.22

Quick answer

Our prediction for Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg is Bayer Leverkusen to win, with a 64% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Bayer Leverkusen or Draw at 1.22.

Prediction
Bayer Leverkusen to win
Chance
64%
Most likely score
2-0
Expected goals
Bayer Leverkusen 2.2, SC Freiburg 1.0
Best bet
Bayer Leverkusen or Draw at 1.22
Both teams to score
55%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Bayer Leverkusen or Draw
82% chanceFair price 1.222 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Bayer Leverkusen to win and Over 2.5
42% chanceFair price 2.391 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Bayer Leverkusen 64%, the draw 21% and SC Freiburg 15%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Bayer Leverkusen took 10 points from their last 5 games and SC Freiburg took 10 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Bayer Leverkusen won 5 of their last 11 games at home. SC Freiburg won 4 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Bayer Leverkusen score 1.9 goals a game and let in 1.4. SC Freiburg score 2.0 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Bayer Leverkusen games and 15 of SC Freiburg games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Bayer Leverkusen won 1 and SC Freiburg won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended SC Freiburg 3, Bayer Leverkusen 3.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Bayer Leverkusen or Draw has a 82% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Leverkusenrecent form+3%
  • Freiburgrecent form+6%
Leverkusen form W W D W LFreiburg form D W W W WHome edge in this league 24% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg: Bayer Leverkusen are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Bayer Leverkusen host SC Freiburg in the Bundesliga on Sun 18 Oct, 13:30 at BayArena. Our prediction for Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg is Bayer Leverkusen to win, with a 64% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Bayer Leverkusen or Draw at 1.22.

Bayer Leverkusen form

Bayer Leverkusen have 8 wins, 8 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 38 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 5 draws and 1 loss from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, W, L, newest first.

SC Freiburg form

SC Freiburg have 11 wins, 2 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 41 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Bayer Leverkusen won 1, SC Freiburg won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished SC Freiburg 3, Bayer Leverkusen 3.

Our call

We expect Bayer Leverkusen to score about 2.2 goals and SC Freiburg about 1.0. That points to Bayer Leverkusen to win, with 2-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Bayer Leverkusen or Draw at 1.22. Our bold bet is Bayer Leverkusen to win and Over 2.5 at 2.39.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

LeverkusenFreiburg
Games played2020
Wins811
Draws82
Losses47
Goals scored3841
Goals conceded2727
Scored per game1.92.0
Conceded per game1.41.4
Home record5W 5D 1L7W 1D 3L
Away record3W 3D 3L4W 1D 4L
Clean sheets30%20%
Both teams scored65%60%
Over 2.5 goals50%75%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals82%1.21
Over 2.5 goals60%1.65
Over 3.5 goals38%2.62
Both teams to score55%1.81
Bayer Leverkusen or Draw85%1.18
SC Freiburg or Draw36%2.78
Bayer Leverkusen to win and Over 2.545%2.23
SC Freiburg to win and Over 2.510%10.52
Bayer Leverkusen clean sheet38%2.63
SC Freiburg clean sheet12%8.67

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-010.2%
2-19.9%
1-19.7%
1-08.9%
3-07.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news
Premier League

Premier League Giants Battle For Freiburg Striker Igor Matanovic

Manchester United, Arsenal, and Chelsea are tracking Freiburg striker Igor Matanovic, while Arsenal's Noni Madueke attracts loan interest.

6 Oct 2026
Premier League

Real Madrid Eye Bayer Leverkusen Star Jarell Quansah

Real Madrid are tracking former Liverpool defender Jarell Quansah ahead of next summer, while several Premier League clubs eye Jules Kounde.

1 Oct 2026
Premier League

Is Liverpool Giving Up on Florian Wirtz Too Soon?

Florian Wirtz has struggled to match his Leverkusen form at Liverpool, but stats show why the club made a record investment.

22 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg?

Our prediction for Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg is Bayer Leverkusen to win, with a 64% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Bayer Leverkusen or Draw at 1.22.

What is the score prediction for Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg?

2-0 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-1. We expect Bayer Leverkusen to score 2.2 goals and SC Freiburg 1.0.

Will both teams score in Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg?

Both teams to score has a 55% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Bayer Leverkusen last 20 games and 12 of SC Freiburg last 20.

How are Bayer Leverkusen playing?

Bayer Leverkusen have 8 wins, 8 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 38 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 5 draws and 1 loss from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, W, L, newest first.

How are SC Freiburg playing?

SC Freiburg have 11 wins, 2 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 41 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, W, L, newest first.

What happened when Bayer Leverkusen and SC Freiburg last met?

It ended SC Freiburg 3, Bayer Leverkusen 3. In the last 2 meetings Bayer Leverkusen won 1 and SC Freiburg won 0.

What is the best bet for Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg?

Bayer Leverkusen or Draw at 1.22, with a 82% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Leverkusen against Freiburg. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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