Predictions › Germany › Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07

BundesligaSat 21 Nov, 14:30 Germany time

Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07 prediction

BayArena

Bayer LeverkusenHome

2.73 : 1.15

expected goals

SC Paderborn 07Away

70%Leverkusen

17%Draw

13%Paderborn

Eagle safe pickBayer Leverkusen draw no bet

1.19

Quick answer

Our prediction for Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07 is Bayer Leverkusen to win, with a 70% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Bayer Leverkusen draw no bet at 1.19.

Prediction: Bayer Leverkusen to win
Chance: 70%
Most likely score: 2-1
Expected goals: Bayer Leverkusen 2.7, SC Paderborn 07 1.1
Best bet: Bayer Leverkusen draw no bet at 1.19
Both teams to score: 64%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Bayer Leverkusen draw no bet

84% chanceFair price 1.192 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Bayer Leverkusen to win and both score

40% chanceFair price 2.511 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Bayer Leverkusen 70%, the draw 17% and SC Paderborn 07 13%. The bookmakers agree and make Bayer Leverkusen the favourite at 1.24.
2
Recent form
Bayer Leverkusen took 6 points from their last 5 games and SC Paderborn 07 took 6 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.
3
Home and away
Bayer Leverkusen won 6 of their last 10 games at home. SC Paderborn 07 won 3 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Bayer Leverkusen score 2.2 goals a game and let in 1.4. SC Paderborn 07 score 1.4 and let in 1.5. Over 2.5 goals landed in 14 of Bayer Leverkusen games and 11 of SC Paderborn 07 games in that run.
5
The safest bet
Bayer Leverkusen draw no bet has a 84% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Leverkusenrecent form-1%

Leverkusen form W L L W LPaderborn form D D L W DHome edge in this league 26% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07: Bayer Leverkusen are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Bayer Leverkusen host SC Paderborn 07 in the Bundesliga on Sat 21 Nov, 14:30 at BayArena. Our prediction for Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07 is Bayer Leverkusen to win, with a 70% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Bayer Leverkusen draw no bet at 1.19.

Bayer Leverkusen form

Bayer Leverkusen have 12 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 44 goals scored and 29 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, L, W, newest first.

SC Paderborn 07 form

SC Paderborn 07 have 7 wins, 8 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, D, W, D, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect Bayer Leverkusen to score about 2.7 goals and SC Paderborn 07 about 1.1. That points to Bayer Leverkusen to win, with 2-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Bayer Leverkusen draw no bet at 1.19. Our bold bet is Bayer Leverkusen to win and both score at 2.51.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Leverkusen	Paderborn
Games played	20	20
Wins	12	7
Draws	2	8
Losses	6	5
Goals scored	44	29
Goals conceded	29	30
Scored per game	2.2	1.4
Conceded per game	1.4	1.5
Home record	6W 1D 3L	4W 3D 3L
Away record	6W 1D 3L	3W 5D 2L
Clean sheets	30%	25%
Both teams scored	60%	60%
Over 2.5 goals	70%	55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Bayer Leverkusen to win	72%	1.40	1.24	-11.7%
A Draw	16%	6.39	6.00	-6.1%
SC Paderborn 07 to win	12%	8.14	7.50	-7.8%
Over 3.5 goals	48%	2.07	1.80	-13.1%
Under 3.5 goals	45%	2.23	1.91	-14.5%
Bayer Leverkusen -1.5	50%	2.02	1.63	-19.5%
SC Paderborn 07 +1.5	43%	2.30	2.05	-10.8%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	90%	1.11
Over 2.5 goals	74%	1.34
Over 3.5 goals	54%	1.84
Both teams to score	64%	1.55
Bayer Leverkusen or Draw	87%	1.15
SC Paderborn 07 or Draw	30%	3.36
Bayer Leverkusen to win and Over 2.5	57%	1.74
SC Paderborn 07 to win and Over 2.5	10%	10.15
Bayer Leverkusen clean sheet	32%	3.17
SC Paderborn 07 clean sheet	6%	15.39

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-18.8%

3-18.1%

2-07.7%

3-07.0%

1-16.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news

Premier League

Real Madrid Eye Bayer Leverkusen Star Jarell Quansah

Real Madrid are tracking former Liverpool defender Jarell Quansah ahead of next summer, while several Premier League clubs eye Jules Kounde.

1 Oct 2026

Premier League

Is Liverpool Giving Up on Florian Wirtz Too Soon?

Florian Wirtz has struggled to match his Leverkusen form at Liverpool, but stats show why the club made a record investment.

22 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07?

Our prediction for Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07 is Bayer Leverkusen to win, with a 70% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Bayer Leverkusen draw no bet at 1.19.

What is the score prediction for Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07?

2-1 is the most likely score, followed by 3-1 and 2-0. We expect Bayer Leverkusen to score 2.7 goals and SC Paderborn 07 1.1.

Will both teams score in Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07?

Both teams to score has a 64% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Bayer Leverkusen last 20 games and 12 of SC Paderborn 07 last 20.

How are Bayer Leverkusen playing?

How are SC Paderborn 07 playing?

What is the best bet for Bayer Leverkusen vs SC Paderborn 07?

Bayer Leverkusen draw no bet at 1.19, with a 84% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Leverkusen against Paderborn. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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