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Predictions › Italy › Benevento vs Cesena
Serie BSat 10 Oct, 13:00 Italy time

Benevento vs Cesena prediction

Stadio Ciro Vigorito

BeneventoHome
1.61 : 1.08
expected goals
CesenaAway
49%Benevento
26%Draw
25%Cesena
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.33

Quick answer

Our prediction for Benevento vs Cesena is Benevento to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.33.

Prediction
Benevento to win
Chance
49%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Benevento 1.6, Cesena 1.1
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.33
Both teams to score
53%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
75% chanceFair price 1.332 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Benevento to win and Over 2.5
29% chanceFair price 3.451 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Benevento 49%, the draw 26% and Cesena 25%. The bookmakers agree and make Benevento the favourite at 1.87.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Benevento took 7 points from their last 5 games and Cesena took 7 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Benevento won 1 of their last 3 games at home. Cesena won 1 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Benevento score 1.2 goals a game and let in 1.0. Cesena score 1.1 and let in 1.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 2 of Benevento games and 10 of Cesena games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Cesenarecent form+1%
Benevento form W W L D LCesena form D D D W DHome edge in this league 32% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Benevento vs Cesena: Benevento are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Benevento host Cesena in the Serie B on Sat 10 Oct, 13:00 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito. Our prediction for Benevento vs Cesena is Benevento to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.33.

Benevento form

Benevento have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in their last 5 games, with 6 goals scored and 5 conceded. At home they have 1 win, 1 draw and 1 loss from 3. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, D, L, newest first.

Cesena form

Cesena have 2 wins, 10 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 35 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 4 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, D, D, W, D, newest first.

Our call

We expect Benevento to score about 1.6 goals and Cesena about 1.1. That points to Benevento to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.33. Our bold bet is Benevento to win and Over 2.5 at 3.45.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

BeneventoCesena
Games played520
Wins22
Draws110
Losses28
Goals scored621
Goals conceded535
Scored per game1.21.1
Conceded per game1.01.8
Home record1W 1D 1L1W 6D 4L
Away record1W 0D 1L1W 4D 4L
Clean sheets20%15%
Both teams scored60%65%
Over 2.5 goals40%50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Benevento to win46%2.181.87-14.1%
A Draw26%3.913.55-9.3%
Cesena to win24%4.153.80-8.5%
Over 2.5 goals48%2.101.80-14.3%
Under 2.5 goals46%2.171.87-13.7%
Benevento -0.547%2.131.80-15.6%
Cesena +0.547%2.131.83-14.1%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals76%1.32
Over 2.5 goals50%1.99
Over 3.5 goals28%3.54
Both teams to score53%1.87
Benevento or Draw75%1.33
Cesena or Draw51%1.96
Benevento to win and Over 2.530%3.34
Cesena to win and Over 2.514%7.08
Benevento clean sheet34%2.93
Cesena clean sheet20%4.99

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.5%
1-010.3%
2-19.5%
2-08.8%
0-07.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Benevento vs Cesena?

Our prediction for Benevento vs Cesena is Benevento to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.33.

What is the score prediction for Benevento vs Cesena?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect Benevento to score 1.6 goals and Cesena 1.1.

Will both teams score in Benevento vs Cesena?

Both teams to score has a 53% chance. Both sides scored in 3 of Benevento last 5 games and 13 of Cesena last 20.

How are Benevento playing?

Benevento have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses in their last 5 games, with 6 goals scored and 5 conceded. At home they have 1 win, 1 draw and 1 loss from 3. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, D, L, newest first.

How are Cesena playing?

Cesena have 2 wins, 10 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 35 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 4 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, D, D, W, D, newest first.

What is the best bet for Benevento vs Cesena?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.33, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Benevento against Cesena. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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  • Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
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