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Predictions › Italy › Benevento vs US Avellino
Serie BSat 7 Nov, 18:30 Italy time

Benevento vs US Avellino prediction

Stadio Ciro Vigorito

BeneventoHome
1.59 : 0.82
expected goals
US AvellinoAway
55%Benevento
26%Draw
19%Avellino
Eagle safe pickBenevento or Draw
1.23

Quick answer

Our prediction for Benevento vs US Avellino is Benevento to win, with a 55% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Benevento or Draw at 1.23.

Prediction
Benevento to win
Chance
55%
Most likely score
1-0
Expected goals
Benevento 1.6, US Avellino 0.8
Best bet
Benevento or Draw at 1.23
Both teams to score
45%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Benevento or Draw
82% chanceFair price 1.232 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Benevento to win and Over 2.5
29% chanceFair price 3.461 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Benevento 55%, the draw 26% and US Avellino 19%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Benevento took 11 points from their last 5 games and US Avellino took 5 from 5. Benevento come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Benevento won 2 of their last 6 games at home. US Avellino won 3 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Benevento score 1.6 goals a game and let in 0.9. US Avellino score 1.3 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 4 of Benevento games and 8 of US Avellino games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Benevento or Draw has a 82% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Beneventorecent form+4%
  • Avellinorecent form-1%
  • Beneventorest between games-5%
  • Avellinorest between games-5%
Benevento form D W D W WAvellino form D L D W LHome edge in this league 28% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Benevento vs US Avellino: Benevento are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Benevento host US Avellino in the Serie B on Sat 7 Nov, 18:30 at Stadio Ciro Vigorito. Our prediction for Benevento vs US Avellino is Benevento to win, with a 55% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Benevento or Draw at 1.23.

Benevento form

Benevento have 4 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses in their last 9 games, with 14 goals scored and 8 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 6. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, W, W, newest first.

US Avellino form

US Avellino have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 22 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, W, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect Benevento to score about 1.6 goals and US Avellino about 0.8. That points to Benevento to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Benevento or Draw at 1.23. Our bold bet is Benevento to win and Over 2.5 at 3.46.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

BeneventoAvellino
Games played920
Wins49
Draws34
Losses27
Goals scored1426
Goals conceded822
Scored per game1.61.3
Conceded per game0.91.1
Home record2W 3D 1L6W 2D 2L
Away record2W 0D 1L3W 2D 5L
Clean sheets33%30%
Both teams scored56%50%
Over 2.5 goals44%40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals70%1.42
Over 2.5 goals43%2.30
Over 3.5 goals22%4.45
Both teams to score45%2.20
Benevento or Draw81%1.23
US Avellino or Draw45%2.22
Benevento to win and Over 2.530%3.32
US Avellino to win and Over 2.59%11.20
Benevento clean sheet44%2.28
US Avellino clean sheet20%4.93

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-013.5%
1-112.4%
2-011.3%
0-09.6%
2-19.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Benevento vs US Avellino?

Our prediction for Benevento vs US Avellino is Benevento to win, with a 55% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Benevento or Draw at 1.23.

What is the score prediction for Benevento vs US Avellino?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 2-0. We expect Benevento to score 1.6 goals and US Avellino 0.8.

Will both teams score in Benevento vs US Avellino?

Both teams to score has a 45% chance. Both sides scored in 5 of Benevento last 9 games and 10 of US Avellino last 20.

How are Benevento playing?

Benevento have 4 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses in their last 9 games, with 14 goals scored and 8 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 6. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, W, W, newest first.

How are US Avellino playing?

US Avellino have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 22 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, W, L, newest first.

What is the best bet for Benevento vs US Avellino?

Benevento or Draw at 1.23, with a 82% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Benevento against Avellino. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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