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Predictions › Portugal › Benfica vs Vitória de Guimaraes
Primeira LigaSun 11 Oct, 17:00 Portugal time

Benfica vs Vitória de Guimaraes prediction

Estádio da Luz

BenficaHome
2.44 : 0.80
expected goals
Vitória de GuimaraesAway
73%Benfica
17%Draw
10%Vitória
Eagle safe pickBenfica to win
1.30

Quick answer

Our prediction for Benfica vs Vitória de Guimaraes is Benfica to win, with a 73% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Benfica to win at 1.30.

Prediction
Benfica to win
Chance
73%
Most likely score
2-0
Expected goals
Benfica 2.4, Vitória de Guimaraes 0.8
Best bet
Benfica to win at 1.30
Both teams to score
51%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Benfica to win
74% chancePrice 1.301 unit
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Benfica to win and both score
31% chanceFair price 3.191 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Benfica 73%, the draw 17% and Vitória de Guimaraes 10%. The bookmakers agree and make Benfica the favourite at 1.30.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Benfica took 12 points from their last 5 games and Vitória de Guimaraes took 5 from 5. Benfica come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Benfica won 5 of their last 8 games at home. Vitória de Guimaraes won 1 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Benfica score 2.5 goals a game and let in 1.1. Vitória de Guimaraes score 1.1 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 17 of Benfica games and 8 of Vitória de Guimaraes games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Benfica won 2 and Vitória de Guimaraes won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Benfica 3, Vitória de Guimaraes 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Benfica to win has a 74% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Benficarecent form+4%
  • Vitória recent form-1%
Benfica form L W W W WVitória form D L D L WHome edge in this league 20% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Benfica vs Vitória de Guimaraes: Benfica are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Benfica host Vitória de Guimaraes in the Primeira Liga on Sun 11 Oct, 17:00 at Estádio da Luz. Our prediction for Benfica vs Vitória de Guimaraes is Benfica to win, with a 73% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Benfica to win at 1.30.

Benfica form

Benfica have 13 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 50 goals scored and 21 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, W, newest first.

Vitória de Guimaraes form

Vitória de Guimaraes have 5 wins, 4 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 1 draw and 8 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Benfica won 2, Vitória de Guimaraes won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Benfica 3, Vitória de Guimaraes 0.

Our call

We expect Benfica to score about 2.4 goals and Vitória de Guimaraes about 0.8. That points to Benfica to win, with 2-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Benfica to win at 1.30. Our bold bet is Benfica to win and both score at 3.19.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

BenficaVitória
Games played2020
Wins135
Draws54
Losses211
Goals scored5021
Goals conceded2129
Scored per game2.51.1
Conceded per game1.11.4
Home record5W 3D 0L4W 3D 3L
Away record8W 2D 2L1W 1D 8L
Clean sheets30%25%
Both teams scored70%45%
Over 2.5 goals85%40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Benfica to win74%1.351.30-3.2%
A Draw17%5.845.00-14.4%
Vitória de Guimaraes to win8%12.678.50-32.9%
Over 3.5 goals39%2.582.20-14.6%
Under 3.5 goals55%1.811.57-13.1%
Benfica -1.548%2.061.74-15.6%
Vitória de Guimaraes +1.546%2.191.87-14.7%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals84%1.19
Over 2.5 goals63%1.59
Over 3.5 goals41%2.46
Both teams to score51%1.97
Benfica or Draw90%1.11
Vitória de Guimaraes or Draw27%3.69
Benfica to win and Over 2.552%1.92
Vitória de Guimaraes to win and Over 2.56%16.73
Benfica clean sheet45%2.23
Vitória de Guimaraes clean sheet9%11.43

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-011.6%
3-09.4%
2-19.3%
1-09.1%
1-18.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news
Europa League

Ruben Amorim Promises Tactical Changes After AC Milan Defeat

AC Milan boss Ruben Amorim says he is ready to adapt his tactics after a 2-0 home loss to Benfica extended his side's winless run to three games.

17 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Benfica vs Vitória de Guimaraes?

Our prediction for Benfica vs Vitória de Guimaraes is Benfica to win, with a 73% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Benfica to win at 1.30.

What is the score prediction for Benfica vs Vitória de Guimaraes?

2-0 is the most likely score, followed by 3-0 and 2-1. We expect Benfica to score 2.4 goals and Vitória de Guimaraes 0.8.

Will both teams score in Benfica vs Vitória de Guimaraes?

Both teams to score has a 51% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of Benfica last 20 games and 9 of Vitória de Guimaraes last 20.

How are Benfica playing?

Benfica have 13 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 50 goals scored and 21 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, W, newest first.

How are Vitória de Guimaraes playing?

Vitória de Guimaraes have 5 wins, 4 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 1 draw and 8 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, L, W, newest first.

What happened when Benfica and Vitória de Guimaraes last met?

It ended Benfica 3, Vitória de Guimaraes 0. In the last 2 meetings Benfica won 2 and Vitória de Guimaraes won 0.

What is the best bet for Benfica vs Vitória de Guimaraes?

Benfica to win at 1.30, with a 74% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Benfica against Vitória . A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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