Predictions › Turkey › Besiktas vs Kocaelispor

Super LigSun 11 Oct, 16:00 Turkey time

Besiktas vs Kocaelispor prediction

Vodafone Park

BesiktasHome

2.34 : 0.81

expected goals

KocaelisporAway

71%Besiktas

18%Draw

11%Kocaelispor

Eagle safe pickBesiktas draw no bet

1.18

Quick answer

Our prediction for Besiktas vs Kocaelispor is Besiktas to win, with a 71% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Besiktas draw no bet at 1.18.

Prediction: Besiktas to win
Chance: 71%
Most likely score: 2-0
Expected goals: Besiktas 2.3, Kocaelispor 0.8
Best bet: Besiktas draw no bet at 1.18
Both teams to score: 50%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Besiktas draw no bet

85% chanceFair price 1.182 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Besiktas to win and both score

30% chanceFair price 3.301 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Besiktas 71%, the draw 18% and Kocaelispor 11%. The bookmakers agree and make Besiktas the favourite at 1.24.
2
Recent form
Besiktas took 12 points from their last 5 games and Kocaelispor took 12 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.
3
Home and away
Besiktas won 7 of their last 10 games at home. Kocaelispor won 3 of their last 11 on the road.
4
Goals
Besiktas score 2.0 goals a game and let in 1.1. Kocaelispor score 0.8 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Besiktas games and 5 of Kocaelispor games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Besiktas won 2 and Kocaelispor won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Kocaelispor 0, Besiktas 1.
6
The safest bet
Besiktas draw no bet has a 85% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Besiktasrecent form+4%
Kocaelisporrecent form+4%

Besiktas form L W W W WKocaelispor form W L W W WHome edge in this league 25% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Besiktas vs Kocaelispor: Besiktas are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Besiktas host Kocaelispor in the Super Lig on Sun 11 Oct, 16:00 at Vodafone Park. Our prediction for Besiktas vs Kocaelispor is Besiktas to win, with a 71% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Besiktas draw no bet at 1.18.

Besiktas form

Besiktas have 12 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 40 goals scored and 21 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, W, newest first.

Kocaelispor form

Kocaelispor have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 17 goals scored and 21 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 6 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Besiktas won 2, Kocaelispor won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Kocaelispor 0, Besiktas 1.

Our call

We expect Besiktas to score about 2.3 goals and Kocaelispor about 0.8. That points to Besiktas to win, with 2-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Besiktas draw no bet at 1.18. Our bold bet is Besiktas to win and both score at 3.30.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Besiktas	Kocaelispor
Games played	20	20
Wins	12	7
Draws	2	4
Losses	6	9
Goals scored	40	17
Goals conceded	21	21
Scored per game	2.0	0.8
Conceded per game	1.1	1.1
Home record	7W 1D 2L	4W 2D 3L
Away record	5W 1D 4L	3W 2D 6L
Clean sheets	35%	30%
Both teams scored	50%	30%
Over 2.5 goals	60%	25%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Besiktas to win	73%	1.36	1.24	-9.3%
A Draw	18%	5.54	5.75	+3.7%
Kocaelispor to win	9%	11.51	10.00	-13.1%
Over 3.5 goals	37%	2.69	2.30	-14.5%
Under 3.5 goals	58%	1.73	1.53	-11.9%
Besiktas -1.5	50%	2.01	1.67	-17.2%
Kocaelispor +1.5	44%	2.25	2.00	-11.1%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	83%	1.21
Over 2.5 goals	61%	1.65
Over 3.5 goals	38%	2.60
Both teams to score	50%	1.98
Besiktas or Draw	89%	1.12
Kocaelispor or Draw	29%	3.46
Besiktas to win and Over 2.5	50%	2.01
Kocaelispor to win and Over 2.5	6%	15.80
Besiktas clean sheet	45%	2.24
Kocaelispor clean sheet	10%	10.33

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-011.8%

1-09.6%

2-19.5%

3-09.2%

1-18.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Besiktas vs Kocaelispor?

Our prediction for Besiktas vs Kocaelispor is Besiktas to win, with a 71% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Besiktas draw no bet at 1.18.

What is the score prediction for Besiktas vs Kocaelispor?

2-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect Besiktas to score 2.3 goals and Kocaelispor 0.8.

Will both teams score in Besiktas vs Kocaelispor?

Both teams to score has a 50% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Besiktas last 20 games and 6 of Kocaelispor last 20.

How are Besiktas playing?

How are Kocaelispor playing?

What happened when Besiktas and Kocaelispor last met?

It ended Kocaelispor 0, Besiktas 1. In the last 2 meetings Besiktas won 2 and Kocaelispor won 0.

What is the best bet for Besiktas vs Kocaelispor?

Besiktas draw no bet at 1.18, with a 85% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Besiktas against Kocaelispor. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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