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Predictions › United Kingdom › Birmingham City vs Queens Park Rangers
ChampionshipSat 17 Oct, 15:00 United Kingdom time

Birmingham City vs Queens Park Rangers prediction

St. Andrew's Stadium

Birmingham CityHome
1.39 : 1.09
expected goals
Queens Park RangersAway
43%Birmingham
28%Draw
29%QPR
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1/3

Quick answer

Our prediction for Birmingham City vs Queens Park Rangers is Birmingham City to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1/3.

Prediction
Birmingham City to win
Chance
43%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Birmingham City 1.4, Queens Park Rangers 1.1
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1/3
Both teams to score
51%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
76% chanceFair price 1/32 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
13% chanceFair price 13/21 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Birmingham City 43%, the draw 28% and Queens Park Rangers 29%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Birmingham City took 6 points from their last 5 games and Queens Park Rangers took 6 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Birmingham City won 4 of their last 11 games at home. Queens Park Rangers won 3 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Birmingham City score 1.3 goals a game and let in 1.3. Queens Park Rangers score 1.3 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Birmingham City games and 11 of Queens Park Rangers games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Birmingham City won 1 and Queens Park Rangers won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Birmingham City 1, Queens Park Rangers 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Nothing moved this one. Both teams are rested, form is level and there is no team news we can act on, so the number is what the results and the price say on their own.

Birmingham form D W L D DQPR form D D D L WHome edge in this league 20% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Birmingham City vs Queens Park Rangers: Birmingham City shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Birmingham City host Queens Park Rangers in the Championship on Sat 17 Oct, 15:00 at St. Andrew's Stadium. Our prediction for Birmingham City vs Queens Park Rangers is Birmingham City to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1/3.

Birmingham City form

Birmingham City have 7 wins, 8 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, D, D, newest first.

Queens Park Rangers form

Queens Park Rangers have 6 wins, 7 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, D, D, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Birmingham City won 1, Queens Park Rangers won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Birmingham City 1, Queens Park Rangers 0.

Our call

We expect Birmingham City to score about 1.4 goals and Queens Park Rangers about 1.1. That points to Birmingham City to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1/3. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 13/2.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

BirminghamQPR
Games played2020
Wins76
Draws87
Losses57
Goals scored2526
Goals conceded2627
Scored per game1.31.3
Conceded per game1.31.4
Home record4W 5D 2L3W 4D 4L
Away record3W 3D 3L3W 3D 3L
Clean sheets20%15%
Both teams scored70%60%
Over 2.5 goals50%55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals72%2/5
Over 2.5 goals45%6/5
Over 3.5 goals24%10/3
Both teams to score51%Evens
Birmingham City or Draw71%2/5
Queens Park Rangers or Draw57%8/11
Birmingham City to win and Over 2.524%3/1
Queens Park Rangers to win and Over 2.515%11/2
Birmingham City clean sheet34%2/1
Queens Park Rangers clean sheet25%3/1

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.4%
1-010.9%
0-09.1%
2-18.8%
0-18.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Birmingham City vs Queens Park Rangers?

Our prediction for Birmingham City vs Queens Park Rangers is Birmingham City to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1/3.

What is the score prediction for Birmingham City vs Queens Park Rangers?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-0. We expect Birmingham City to score 1.4 goals and Queens Park Rangers 1.1.

Will both teams score in Birmingham City vs Queens Park Rangers?

Both teams to score has a 51% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of Birmingham City last 20 games and 12 of Queens Park Rangers last 20.

How are Birmingham City playing?

Birmingham City have 7 wins, 8 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, D, D, newest first.

How are Queens Park Rangers playing?

Queens Park Rangers have 6 wins, 7 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, D, D, L, W, newest first.

What happened when Birmingham City and Queens Park Rangers last met?

It ended Birmingham City 1, Queens Park Rangers 0. In the last 2 meetings Birmingham City won 1 and Queens Park Rangers won 1.

What is the best bet for Birmingham City vs Queens Park Rangers?

Under 3.5 goals at 1/3, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Birmingham against QPR. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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