Predictions › United Kingdom › Blackburn Rovers vs Cardiff City

ChampionshipSat 10 Oct, 15:00 United Kingdom time

Blackburn Rovers vs Cardiff City prediction

Ewood Park

Blackburn RoversHome

1.43 : 1.42

expected goals

Cardiff CityAway

37%Blackburn

26%Draw

37%Cardiff

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

3/10

Quick answer

Our prediction for Blackburn Rovers vs Cardiff City is Blackburn Rovers to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 3/10.

Prediction: Blackburn Rovers to win
Chance: 37%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Blackburn Rovers 1.4, Cardiff City 1.4
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 3/10
Both teams to score: 58%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

77% chanceFair price 3/102 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

12% chanceFair price 7/11 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Blackburn Rovers 37%, the draw 26% and Cardiff City 37%. The bookmakers see it the other way and make Cardiff City the favourite at 6/4, so take care with this one.
2
Recent form
Blackburn Rovers took 5 points from their last 5 games and Cardiff City took 4 from 5. Blackburn Rovers come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Blackburn Rovers won 2 of their last 9 games at home. Cardiff City won 2 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Blackburn Rovers score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.2. Cardiff City score 1.8 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Blackburn Rovers games and 10 of Cardiff City games in that run.
5
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Blackburnrecent form-1%
Cardiffrecent form-3%

Blackburn form D W L L DCardiff form W L D L LHome edge in this league 20% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Blackburn Rovers vs Cardiff City: Blackburn Rovers shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Blackburn Rovers host Cardiff City in the Championship on Sat 10 Oct, 15:00 at Ewood Park. Our prediction for Blackburn Rovers vs Cardiff City is Blackburn Rovers to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 3/10.

Blackburn Rovers form

Blackburn Rovers have 6 wins, 7 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 24 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, L, D, newest first.

Cardiff City form

Cardiff City have 7 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, L, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect Blackburn Rovers to score about 1.4 goals and Cardiff City about 1.4. That points to Blackburn Rovers to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 3/10. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7/1.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Blackburn	Cardiff
Games played	20	20
Wins	6	7
Draws	7	7
Losses	7	6
Goals scored	23	35
Goals conceded	24	27
Scored per game	1.1	1.8
Conceded per game	1.2	1.4
Home record	2W 3D 4L	5W 4D 2L
Away record	4W 4D 3L	2W 3D 4L
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Both teams scored	65%	65%
Over 2.5 goals	60%	50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Blackburn Rovers to win	35%	15/8	13/8	-7.5%
A Draw	26%	3/1	5/2	-10.2%
Cardiff City to win	34%	15/8	6/4	-15.6%
Over 2.5 goals	53%	5/6	8/13	-14.1%
Under 2.5 goals	40%	6/4	6/5	-11.4%
Blackburn Rovers +0.5	59%	4/6	1/2	-11.6%
Cardiff City -0.5	36%	7/4	5/4	-16.9%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	79%	2/7
Over 2.5 goals	54%	5/6
Over 3.5 goals	32%	85/40
Both teams to score	58%	8/11
Blackburn Rovers or Draw	63%	4/7
Cardiff City or Draw	63%	4/7
Blackburn Rovers to win and Over 2.5	24%	10/3
Cardiff City to win and Over 2.5	23%	10/3
Blackburn Rovers clean sheet	24%	3/1
Cardiff City clean sheet	24%	10/3

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.4%

2-18.4%

1-28.3%

1-07.5%

0-17.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Blackburn Rovers vs Cardiff City?

Our prediction for Blackburn Rovers vs Cardiff City is Blackburn Rovers to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 3/10.

What is the score prediction for Blackburn Rovers vs Cardiff City?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-2. We expect Blackburn Rovers to score 1.4 goals and Cardiff City 1.4.

Will both teams score in Blackburn Rovers vs Cardiff City?

Both teams to score has a 58% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Blackburn Rovers last 20 games and 13 of Cardiff City last 20.

How are Blackburn Rovers playing?

How are Cardiff City playing?

What is the best bet for Blackburn Rovers vs Cardiff City?

Over 1.5 goals at 3/10, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Blackburn against Cardiff. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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