Predictions › United Kingdom › Blackburn Rovers vs Stoke City

ChampionshipTue 3 Nov, 19:45 United Kingdom time

Blackburn Rovers vs Stoke City prediction

Ewood Park

Blackburn RoversHome

1.22 : 0.83

expected goals

Stoke CityAway

44%Blackburn

31%Draw

24%Stoke

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

2/11

Quick answer

Our prediction for Blackburn Rovers vs Stoke City is Blackburn Rovers to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 2/11.

Prediction: Blackburn Rovers to win
Chance: 44%
Most likely score: 1-0
Expected goals: Blackburn Rovers 1.2, Stoke City 0.8
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 2/11
Both teams to score: 41%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

85% chanceFair price 2/112 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-0

15% chanceFair price 11/21 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Blackburn Rovers 44%, the draw 31% and Stoke City 24%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Blackburn Rovers took 10 points from their last 5 games and Stoke City took 10 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.
3
Home and away
Blackburn Rovers won 4 of their last 10 games at home. Stoke City won 3 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Blackburn Rovers score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.3. Stoke City score 1.2 and let in 1.5. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of Blackburn Rovers games and 10 of Stoke City games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Blackburn Rovers won 0 and Stoke City won 0 with 2 draws. The last one ended Stoke City 1, Blackburn Rovers 1.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 85% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Blackburnrecent form+1%
Stokerecent form+3%
Blackburnrest between games-5%
Stokerest between games-5%

Blackburn form D L W W DStoke form D W L W WHome edge in this league 19% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Blackburn Rovers vs Stoke City: Blackburn Rovers shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Blackburn Rovers host Stoke City in the Championship on Tue 3 Nov, 19:45 at Ewood Park. Our prediction for Blackburn Rovers vs Stoke City is Blackburn Rovers to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 2/11.

Blackburn Rovers form

Blackburn Rovers have 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, W, D, newest first.

Stoke City form

Stoke City have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Blackburn Rovers won 0, Stoke City won 0 and 2 games ended level. Last time out it finished Stoke City 1, Blackburn Rovers 1.

Our call

We expect Blackburn Rovers to score about 1.2 goals and Stoke City about 0.8. That points to Blackburn Rovers to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 2/11. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-0 at 11/2.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Blackburn	Stoke
Games played	20	20
Wins	7	7
Draws	6	4
Losses	7	9
Goals scored	27	24
Goals conceded	26	30
Scored per game	1.4	1.2
Conceded per game	1.3	1.5
Home record	4W 2D 4L	4W 3D 4L
Away record	3W 4D 3L	3W 1D 5L
Clean sheets	20%	25%
Both teams scored	70%	60%
Over 2.5 goals	65%	50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	61%	8/13
Over 2.5 goals	34%	2/1
Over 3.5 goals	15%	11/2
Both teams to score	41%	6/4
Blackburn Rovers or Draw	76%	1/3
Stoke City or Draw	56%	4/5
Blackburn Rovers to win and Over 2.5	20%	4/1
Stoke City to win and Over 2.5	10%	9/1
Blackburn Rovers clean sheet	44%	5/4
Stoke City clean sheet	30%	12/5

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-014.9%

1-113.8%

0-013.7%

0-19.9%

2-09.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Blackburn Rovers vs Stoke City?

Our prediction for Blackburn Rovers vs Stoke City is Blackburn Rovers to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 2/11.

What is the score prediction for Blackburn Rovers vs Stoke City?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 0-0. We expect Blackburn Rovers to score 1.2 goals and Stoke City 0.8.

Will both teams score in Blackburn Rovers vs Stoke City?

Both teams to score has a 41% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of Blackburn Rovers last 20 games and 12 of Stoke City last 20.

How are Blackburn Rovers playing?

How are Stoke City playing?

What happened when Blackburn Rovers and Stoke City last met?

It ended Stoke City 1, Blackburn Rovers 1. In the last 2 meetings Blackburn Rovers won 0 and Stoke City won 0.

What is the best bet for Blackburn Rovers vs Stoke City?

Under 3.5 goals at 2/11, with a 85% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Blackburn against Stoke. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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