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Predictions › Argentina › Boca Juniors vs Defensa y Justicia
Argentina Liga ProfesionalSun 8 Nov, 20:00 Argentina time

Boca Juniors vs Defensa y Justicia prediction

Alberto José Armando (La Bombonera)

Boca JuniorsHome
1.64 : 0.85
expected goals
Defensa y JusticiaAway
55%Boca
26%Draw
19%Def. y Jus.
Eagle safe pickBoca Juniors or Draw
1.23

Quick answer

Our prediction for Boca Juniors vs Defensa y Justicia is Boca Juniors to win, with a 55% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Boca Juniors or Draw at 1.23.

Prediction
Boca Juniors to win
Chance
55%
Most likely score
1-0
Expected goals
Boca Juniors 1.6, Defensa y Justicia 0.8
Best bet
Boca Juniors or Draw at 1.23
Both teams to score
47%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Boca Juniors or Draw
81% chanceFair price 1.232 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Boca Juniors to win and Over 2.5
31% chanceFair price 3.261 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Boca Juniors 55%, the draw 26% and Defensa y Justicia 19%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Boca Juniors took 13 points from their last 5 games and Defensa y Justicia took 10 from 5. Boca Juniors come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Boca Juniors won 5 of their last 9 games at home. Defensa y Justicia won 3 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Boca Juniors score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.1. Defensa y Justicia score 1.3 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Boca Juniors games and 11 of Defensa y Justicia games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Boca Juniors won 1 and Defensa y Justicia won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Defensa y Justicia 0, Boca Juniors 4.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Boca Juniors or Draw has a 81% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Boca recent form+1%
  • Def. y Jus.recent form+1%
Boca form D W W L DDef. y Jus. form D L W W DHome edge in this league 24% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Boca Juniors vs Defensa y Justicia: Boca Juniors are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Boca Juniors host Defensa y Justicia in the Argentina Liga Profesional on Sun 8 Nov, 20:00 at Alberto José Armando (La Bombonera). Our prediction for Boca Juniors vs Defensa y Justicia is Boca Juniors to win, with a 55% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Boca Juniors or Draw at 1.23.

Boca Juniors form

Boca Juniors have 8 wins, 7 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 22 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, W, W, newest first.

Defensa y Justicia form

Defensa y Justicia have 9 wins, 3 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, W, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Boca Juniors won 1, Defensa y Justicia won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Defensa y Justicia 0, Boca Juniors 4.

Our call

We expect Boca Juniors to score about 1.6 goals and Defensa y Justicia about 0.8. That points to Boca Juniors to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Boca Juniors or Draw at 1.23. Our bold bet is Boca Juniors to win and Over 2.5 at 3.26.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Boca Def. y Jus.
Games played2020
Wins89
Draws73
Losses58
Goals scored2725
Goals conceded2226
Scored per game1.41.3
Conceded per game1.11.3
Home record5W 2D 2L6W 1D 3L
Away record3W 5D 3L3W 2D 5L
Clean sheets25%25%
Both teams scored55%50%
Over 2.5 goals45%55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals72%1.39
Over 2.5 goals45%2.21
Over 3.5 goals24%4.17
Both teams to score47%2.14
Boca Juniors or Draw81%1.23
Defensa y Justicia or Draw45%2.25
Boca Juniors to win and Over 2.531%3.19
Defensa y Justicia to win and Over 2.59%10.77
Boca Juniors clean sheet43%2.33
Defensa y Justicia clean sheet19%5.16

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-012.9%
1-112.2%
2-011.2%
2-19.5%
0-09.0%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Boca Juniors vs Defensa y Justicia?

Our prediction for Boca Juniors vs Defensa y Justicia is Boca Juniors to win, with a 55% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Boca Juniors or Draw at 1.23.

What is the score prediction for Boca Juniors vs Defensa y Justicia?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 2-0. We expect Boca Juniors to score 1.6 goals and Defensa y Justicia 0.8.

Will both teams score in Boca Juniors vs Defensa y Justicia?

Both teams to score has a 47% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Boca Juniors last 20 games and 10 of Defensa y Justicia last 20.

How are Boca Juniors playing?

Boca Juniors have 8 wins, 7 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 22 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, W, W, newest first.

How are Defensa y Justicia playing?

Defensa y Justicia have 9 wins, 3 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 25 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, W, D, newest first.

What happened when Boca Juniors and Defensa y Justicia last met?

It ended Defensa y Justicia 0, Boca Juniors 4. In the last 2 meetings Boca Juniors won 1 and Defensa y Justicia won 1.

What is the best bet for Boca Juniors vs Defensa y Justicia?

Boca Juniors or Draw at 1.23, with a 81% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Boca against Def. y Jus.. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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