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Predictions › Argentina › Boca Juniors vs River Plate
Argentina Liga ProfesionalSun 1 Nov, 18:00 Argentina time

Boca Juniors vs River Plate prediction

Alberto José Armando (La Bombonera)

Boca JuniorsHome
1.24 : 0.88
expected goals
River PlateAway
44%Boca
31%Draw
26%River Plate
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.20

Quick answer

Our prediction for Boca Juniors vs River Plate is Boca Juniors to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.20.

Prediction
Boca Juniors to win
Chance
44%
Most likely score
1-0
Expected goals
Boca Juniors 1.2, River Plate 0.9
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.20
Both teams to score
42%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
83% chanceFair price 1.202 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-0
14% chanceFair price 7.101 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Boca Juniors 44%, the draw 31% and River Plate 26%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Boca Juniors took 13 points from their last 5 games and River Plate took 10 from 5. Boca Juniors come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Boca Juniors won 5 of their last 9 games at home. River Plate won 3 of their last 6 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Boca Juniors score 1.5 goals a game and let in 1.1. River Plate score 1.4 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Boca Juniors games and 9 of River Plate games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Boca Juniors won 2 and River Plate won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended River Plate 0, Boca Juniors 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 83% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Boca recent form+1%
  • River Platerecent form+1%
Boca form D W L D WRiver Plate form D D W L WHome edge in this league 24% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Boca Juniors vs River Plate: Boca Juniors shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Boca Juniors host River Plate in the Argentina Liga Profesional on Sun 1 Nov, 18:00 at Alberto José Armando (La Bombonera). Our prediction for Boca Juniors vs River Plate is Boca Juniors to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.20.

Boca Juniors form

Boca Juniors have 8 wins, 7 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 22 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, W, W, newest first.

River Plate form

River Plate have 9 wins, 3 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 21 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 6. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Boca Juniors won 2, River Plate won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished River Plate 0, Boca Juniors 1.

Our call

We expect Boca Juniors to score about 1.2 goals and River Plate about 0.9. That points to Boca Juniors to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.20. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-0 at 7.10.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Boca River Plate
Games played2020
Wins89
Draws73
Losses58
Goals scored3028
Goals conceded2221
Scored per game1.51.4
Conceded per game1.11.1
Home record5W 2D 2L6W 2D 6L
Away record3W 5D 3L3W 1D 2L
Clean sheets25%25%
Both teams scored55%45%
Over 2.5 goals50%45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals63%1.58
Over 2.5 goals36%2.82
Over 3.5 goals16%6.07
Both teams to score42%2.36
Boca Juniors or Draw74%1.34
River Plate or Draw56%1.78
Boca Juniors to win and Over 2.520%4.91
River Plate to win and Over 2.511%9.01
Boca Juniors clean sheet41%2.41
River Plate clean sheet29%3.45

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-014.1%
1-113.9%
0-012.8%
0-19.8%
2-09.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Boca Juniors vs River Plate?

Our prediction for Boca Juniors vs River Plate is Boca Juniors to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.20.

What is the score prediction for Boca Juniors vs River Plate?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 0-0. We expect Boca Juniors to score 1.2 goals and River Plate 0.9.

Will both teams score in Boca Juniors vs River Plate?

Both teams to score has a 42% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Boca Juniors last 20 games and 9 of River Plate last 20.

How are Boca Juniors playing?

Boca Juniors have 8 wins, 7 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 22 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, W, W, newest first.

How are River Plate playing?

River Plate have 9 wins, 3 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 21 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 6. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, L, W, newest first.

What happened when Boca Juniors and River Plate last met?

It ended River Plate 0, Boca Juniors 1. In the last 2 meetings Boca Juniors won 2 and River Plate won 0.

What is the best bet for Boca Juniors vs River Plate?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.20, with a 83% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Boca against River Plate. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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