Predictions › Argentina › Boca Juniors vs Unión (Santa Fe)

Argentina Liga ProfesionalSat 3 Oct, 00:30 Argentina time

Boca Juniors vs Unión (Santa Fe) prediction

Alberto José Armando (La Bombonera)

Boca JuniorsHome

1.74 : 0.83

expected goals

Unión (Santa Fe)Away

58%Boca

25%Draw

17%Unión (SF)

Eagle safe pickBoca Juniors or Draw

1.24

Quick answer

Our prediction for Boca Juniors vs Unión (Santa Fe) is Boca Juniors to win, with a 58% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Boca Juniors or Draw at 1.24.

Prediction: Boca Juniors to win
Chance: 58%
Most likely score: 1-0
Expected goals: Boca Juniors 1.7, Unión (Santa Fe) 0.8
Best bet: Boca Juniors or Draw at 1.24
Both teams to score: 47%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Boca Juniors or Draw

81% chanceFair price 1.242 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Boca Juniors to win and Over 2.5

32% chanceFair price 3.121 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Boca Juniors 58%, the draw 25% and Unión (Santa Fe) 17%. The bookmakers agree and make Boca Juniors the favourite at 1.56.
2
Recent form
Boca Juniors took 11 points from their last 5 games and Unión (Santa Fe) took 9 from 5. Boca Juniors come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Boca Juniors won 4 of their last 9 games at home. Unión (Santa Fe) won 2 of their last 11 on the road.
4
Goals
Boca Juniors score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.0. Unión (Santa Fe) score 1.6 and let in 1.7. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Boca Juniors games and 13 of Unión (Santa Fe) games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Boca Juniors won 0 and Unión (Santa Fe) won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Unión (Santa Fe) 1, Boca Juniors 1.
6
The safest bet
Boca Juniors or Draw has a 81% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Boca recent form+6%
Unión (SF)recent form+1%

Boca form W W D W WUnión (SF) form L L W W WHome edge in this league 25% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Boca Juniors vs Unión (Santa Fe): Boca Juniors are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Boca Juniors host Unión (Santa Fe) in the Argentina Liga Profesional on Sat 3 Oct, 00:30 at Alberto José Armando (La Bombonera). Our prediction for Boca Juniors vs Unión (Santa Fe) is Boca Juniors to win, with a 58% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Boca Juniors or Draw at 1.24.

Boca Juniors form

Boca Juniors have 8 wins, 7 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 20 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, W, D, newest first.

Unión (Santa Fe) form

Unión (Santa Fe) have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 34 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 6 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Boca Juniors won 0, Unión (Santa Fe) won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Unión (Santa Fe) 1, Boca Juniors 1.

Our call

We expect Boca Juniors to score about 1.7 goals and Unión (Santa Fe) about 0.8. That points to Boca Juniors to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Boca Juniors or Draw at 1.24. Our bold bet is Boca Juniors to win and Over 2.5 at 3.12.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Boca	Unión (SF)
Games played	20	20
Wins	8	6
Draws	7	5
Losses	5	9
Goals scored	28	32
Goals conceded	20	34
Scored per game	1.4	1.6
Conceded per game	1.0	1.7
Home record	4W 3D 2L	4W 2D 3L
Away record	4W 4D 3L	2W 3D 6L
Clean sheets	30%	5%
Both teams scored	50%	75%
Over 2.5 goals	40%	65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Boca Juniors to win	55%	1.81	1.56	-14.2%
A Draw	24%	4.16	3.80	-8.8%
Unión (Santa Fe) to win	17%	5.89	5.50	-6.7%
Over 2.5 goals	43%	2.32	2.00	-13.8%
Under 2.5 goals	51%	1.97	1.69	-14.4%
Boca Juniors -0.5	56%	1.78	1.51	-14.9%
Unión (Santa Fe) +0.5	38%	2.66	2.25	-15.5%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	73%	1.37
Over 2.5 goals	47%	2.12
Over 3.5 goals	26%	3.90
Both teams to score	47%	2.12
Boca Juniors or Draw	83%	1.20
Unión (Santa Fe) or Draw	42%	2.40
Boca Juniors to win and Over 2.5	34%	2.94
Unión (Santa Fe) to win and Over 2.5	9%	11.62
Boca Juniors clean sheet	44%	2.29
Unión (Santa Fe) clean sheet	18%	5.68

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-012.7%

1-111.7%

2-011.6%

2-19.6%

0-08.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Boca Juniors vs Unión (Santa Fe)?

Our prediction for Boca Juniors vs Unión (Santa Fe) is Boca Juniors to win, with a 58% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Boca Juniors or Draw at 1.24.

What is the score prediction for Boca Juniors vs Unión (Santa Fe)?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 2-0. We expect Boca Juniors to score 1.7 goals and Unión (Santa Fe) 0.8.

Will both teams score in Boca Juniors vs Unión (Santa Fe)?

Both teams to score has a 47% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Boca Juniors last 20 games and 15 of Unión (Santa Fe) last 20.

How are Boca Juniors playing?

How are Unión (Santa Fe) playing?

What happened when Boca Juniors and Unión (Santa Fe) last met?

It ended Unión (Santa Fe) 1, Boca Juniors 1. In the last 1 meeting Boca Juniors won 0 and Unión (Santa Fe) won 0.

What is the best bet for Boca Juniors vs Unión (Santa Fe)?

Boca Juniors or Draw at 1.24, with a 81% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Boca against Unión (SF). A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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