Predictions › Norway › Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK

EliteserienSat 10 Oct, 14:00 Norway time

Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK prediction

Aspmyra Stadion

Bodo/GlimtHome

3.94 : 0.89

expected goals

Kristiansund BKAway

88%Bodo/Glimt

8%Draw

4%Kristiansund

Eagle safe pickOver 2.5 goals

1.20

Quick answer

Our prediction for Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK is Bodo/Glimt to win, with a 88% chance. The most likely score is 3-0. Our best bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.20.

Prediction: Bodo/Glimt to win
Chance: 88%
Most likely score: 3-0
Expected goals: Bodo/Glimt 3.9, Kristiansund BK 0.9
Best bet: Over 2.5 goals at 1.20
Both teams to score: 58%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 2.5 goals

83% chanceFair price 1.202 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 3-0

8% chanceFair price 12.241 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Bodo/Glimt 88%, the draw 8% and Kristiansund BK 4%. The bookmakers agree and make Bodo/Glimt the favourite at 1.06.
2
Recent form
Bodo/Glimt took 9 points from their last 5 games and Kristiansund BK took 4 from 5. Bodo/Glimt come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Bodo/Glimt won 9 of their last 10 games at home. Kristiansund BK won 1 of their last 11 on the road.
4
Goals
Bodo/Glimt score 2.5 goals a game and let in 0.9. Kristiansund BK score 0.8 and let in 1.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 15 of Bodo/Glimt games and 10 of Kristiansund BK games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Bodo/Glimt won 2 and Kristiansund BK won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Kristiansund BK 0, Bodo/Glimt 3.
6
The safest bet
Over 2.5 goals has a 83% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Bodo/Glimtrecent form+1%
Kristiansundrecent form-3%

Bodo/Glimt form L W L W WKristiansund form L L W D LHome edge in this league 34% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK: Bodo/Glimt are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Bodo/Glimt host Kristiansund BK in the Eliteserien on Sat 10 Oct, 14:00 at Aspmyra Stadion. Our prediction for Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK is Bodo/Glimt to win, with a 88% chance. The most likely score is 3-0. Our best bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.20.

Bodo/Glimt form

Bodo/Glimt have 15 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 50 goals scored and 19 conceded. At home they have 9 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, W, W, newest first.

Kristiansund BK form

Kristiansund BK have 4 wins, 5 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 17 goals scored and 35 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 3 draws and 7 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Bodo/Glimt won 2, Kristiansund BK won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Kristiansund BK 0, Bodo/Glimt 3.

Our call

We expect Bodo/Glimt to score about 3.9 goals and Kristiansund BK about 0.9. That points to Bodo/Glimt to win, with 3-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.20. Our bold bet is Correct score 3-0 at 12.24.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Bodo/Glimt	Kristiansund
Games played	20	20
Wins	15	4
Draws	2	5
Losses	3	11
Goals scored	50	17
Goals conceded	19	35
Scored per game	2.5	0.8
Conceded per game	0.9	1.8
Home record	9W 0D 1L	3W 2D 4L
Away record	6W 2D 2L	1W 3D 7L
Clean sheets	45%	20%
Both teams scored	45%	50%
Over 2.5 goals	75%	50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Bodo/Glimt to win	86%	1.16	1.06	-8.6%
A Draw	6%	17.99	13.00	-27.7%
Kristiansund BK to win	2%	52.91	17.00	-67.9%
Over 4.5 goals	47%	2.14	1.87	-12.6%
Under 4.5 goals	47%	2.13	1.77	-16.9%
Bodo/Glimt -2.5	55%	1.83	1.56	-14.9%
Kristiansund BK +2.5	39%	2.56	2.15	-16.0%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	96%	1.05
Over 2.5 goals	86%	1.16
Over 3.5 goals	71%	1.41
Both teams to score	58%	1.73
Bodo/Glimt or Draw	96%	1.04
Kristiansund BK or Draw	12%	8.68
Bodo/Glimt to win and Over 2.5	79%	1.26
Kristiansund BK to win and Over 2.5	3%	32.62
Bodo/Glimt clean sheet	41%	2.43
Kristiansund BK clean sheet	2%	51.33

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

3-08.2%

4-08.0%

3-17.3%

4-17.2%

5-06.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK?

Our prediction for Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK is Bodo/Glimt to win, with a 88% chance. The most likely score is 3-0. Our best bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.20.

What is the score prediction for Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK?

3-0 is the most likely score, followed by 4-0 and 3-1. We expect Bodo/Glimt to score 3.9 goals and Kristiansund BK 0.9.

Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK?

Both teams to score has a 58% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Bodo/Glimt last 20 games and 10 of Kristiansund BK last 20.

How are Bodo/Glimt playing?

How are Kristiansund BK playing?

What happened when Bodo/Glimt and Kristiansund BK last met?

It ended Kristiansund BK 0, Bodo/Glimt 3. In the last 2 meetings Bodo/Glimt won 2 and Kristiansund BK won 0.

What is the best bet for Bodo/Glimt vs Kristiansund BK?

Over 2.5 goals at 1.20, with a 83% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Bodo/Glimt against Kristiansund. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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