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Predictions › Champions League › Bodo/Glimt vs Lille
Champions LeagueTue 3 Nov, 20:00 UTC

Bodo/Glimt vs Lille prediction

Aspmyra Stadion

Bodo/GlimtHome
1.87 : 1.13
expected goals
LilleAway
54%Bodo/Glimt
24%Draw
22%Lille
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.25

Quick answer

Our prediction for Bodo/Glimt vs Lille is Bodo/Glimt to win, with a 54% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25.

Prediction
Bodo/Glimt to win
Chance
54%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Bodo/Glimt 1.9, Lille 1.1
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.25
Both teams to score
58%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
80% chanceFair price 1.252 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Bodo/Glimt to win and Over 2.5
36% chanceFair price 2.791 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Bodo/Glimt 54%, the draw 24% and Lille 22%. The bookmakers agree and make Bodo/Glimt the favourite at 1.91.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Bodo/Glimt took 9 points from their last 5 games and Lille took 4 from 5. Bodo/Glimt come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Bodo/Glimt won 9 of their last 10 games at home. Lille won 7 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Bodo/Glimt score 2.4 goals a game and let in 1.1. Lille score 1.4 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 15 of Bodo/Glimt games and 9 of Lille games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Bodo/Glimtrecent form+3%
  • Lillerecent form-1%
  • Bodo/Glimtrest between games-5%
Bodo/Glimt form D L W W WLille form D D L W LHome edge in this league 33% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Bodo/Glimt vs Lille: Bodo/Glimt are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Bodo/Glimt host Lille in the Champions League on Tue 3 Nov, 20:00 at Aspmyra Stadion. Our prediction for Bodo/Glimt vs Lille is Bodo/Glimt to win, with a 54% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25.

Bodo/Glimt form

Bodo/Glimt have 15 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 48 goals scored and 23 conceded. At home they have 9 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, W, W, newest first.

Lille form

Lille have 10 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 22 conceded. Away from home they have 7 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, W, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect Bodo/Glimt to score about 1.9 goals and Lille about 1.1. That points to Bodo/Glimt to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25. Our bold bet is Bodo/Glimt to win and Over 2.5 at 2.79.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Bodo/GlimtLille
Games played2020
Wins1510
Draws14
Losses46
Goals scored4828
Goals conceded2322
Scored per game2.41.4
Conceded per game1.11.1
Home record9W 0D 1L3W 4D 3L
Away record6W 1D 3L7W 0D 3L
Clean sheets40%45%
Both teams scored50%40%
Over 2.5 goals75%45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Bodo/Glimt to win50%2.001.91-4.8%
A Draw23%4.313.90-9.6%
Lille to win22%4.633.45-25.5%
Over 3.5 goals40%2.492.15-13.5%
Under 3.5 goals54%1.871.63-13.0%
Bodo/Glimt -0.548%2.101.83-12.7%
Lille +0.546%2.161.80-16.5%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals81%1.24
Over 2.5 goals58%1.74
Over 3.5 goals35%2.85
Both teams to score58%1.73
Bodo/Glimt or Draw78%1.28
Lille or Draw46%2.18
Bodo/Glimt to win and Over 2.537%2.73
Lille to win and Over 2.514%7.19
Bodo/Glimt clean sheet32%3.08
Lille clean sheet15%6.48

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.2%
2-19.8%
2-08.7%
1-08.7%
3-16.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Bodo/Glimt vs Lille?

Our prediction for Bodo/Glimt vs Lille is Bodo/Glimt to win, with a 54% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25.

What is the score prediction for Bodo/Glimt vs Lille?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 2-0. We expect Bodo/Glimt to score 1.9 goals and Lille 1.1.

Will both teams score in Bodo/Glimt vs Lille?

Both teams to score has a 58% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Bodo/Glimt last 20 games and 8 of Lille last 20.

How are Bodo/Glimt playing?

Bodo/Glimt have 15 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 48 goals scored and 23 conceded. At home they have 9 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, W, W, newest first.

How are Lille playing?

Lille have 10 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 22 conceded. Away from home they have 7 wins, 0 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, W, L, newest first.

What is the best bet for Bodo/Glimt vs Lille?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.25, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Bodo/Glimt against Lille. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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