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Predictions › United States › Boise State Broncos vs Fresno State Bulldogs
College FootballSat 10 Oct, 22:30 United States time

Boise State Broncos vs Fresno State Bulldogs prediction

Valley Children's Stadium

Boise State BroncosAway
18.5 : 27.0
projected points
Fresno State BulldogsHome
27%Boise St
73%Fresno St
Eagle safe pickFresno St +1.5
-293

Quick answer

Our prediction for Boise State Broncos vs Fresno State Bulldogs is Fresno State Bulldogs to win, with a 73% chance. We project Boise State Broncos 18.5 and Fresno State Bulldogs 27.0. Our best bet is Fresno St +1.5 at -293.

Prediction
Fresno State Bulldogs to win
Chance
73%
Projected score
Boise State Broncos 18, Fresno State Bulldogs 27
Projected total
45.5 points
Best bet
Fresno St +1.5 at -293

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Fresno St +1.5
75% chanceFair price -2931 unit
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Boise St to win
28% chanceFair price +2521 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Fresno State Bulldogs 73% and Boise State Broncos 27%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Fresno State Bulldogs won 4 of their last 5 and Boise State Broncos won 3 of their last 5. Fresno State Bulldogs come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Fresno State Bulldogs won 6 of their last 8 games at home. Boise State Broncos won 4 of their last 8 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Fresno State Bulldogs score 25.9 points a game and let in 17.7. Boise State Broncos score 30.9 and let in 23.4. Their recent games average 43.6 and 54.3 points in total.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Fresno State Bulldogs won 1 and Boise State Broncos won 0. The last one ended Boise State Broncos 7, Fresno State Bulldogs 30.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Fresno St +1.5 has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Nothing moved this one. Both teams are rested, form is level and there is no team news we can act on, so the number is what the results and the price say on their own.

Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Boise State Broncos vs Fresno State Bulldogs: Fresno State Bulldogs are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Fresno State Bulldogs host Boise State Broncos in the College Football on Sat 10 Oct, 22:30 at Valley Children's Stadium. Our prediction for Boise State Broncos vs Fresno State Bulldogs is Fresno State Bulldogs to win, with a 73% chance. We project Boise State Broncos 18.5 and Fresno State Bulldogs 27.0. Our best bet is Fresno St +1.5 at -293.

Fresno State Bulldogs form

Fresno State Bulldogs have 10 wins and 4 losses in their last 14 games, with 363 points scored and 248 conceded. At home they have 6 wins and 2 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, W, newest first.

Boise State Broncos form

Boise State Broncos have 11 wins and 5 losses in their last 16 games, with 495 points scored and 374 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins and 4 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Fresno State Bulldogs won 1, Boise State Broncos won 0. Last time out it finished Boise State Broncos 7, Fresno State Bulldogs 30.

Our call

We expect Boise State Broncos to score about 18.5 points and Fresno State Bulldogs about 27.0. That points to Fresno State Bulldogs to win. Our safest bet is Fresno St +1.5 at -293. Our bold bet is Boise St to win at +252.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 16 games in all competitions.

Fresno StBoise St
Games played1416
Wins1011
Losses45
Points scored363495
Points conceded248374
Scored per game25.930.9
Conceded per game17.723.4
Home record6W 2L7W 1L
Away record4W 2L4W 4L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Spread and total at every line

Fresno St spreadCoversFair
Fresno St -15.533%+201
Fresno St -11.543%+134
Fresno St -8.550%-101
Fresno St -5.558%-136
Fresno St -1.567%-203
Total pointsOverUnder
38.567%33%
42.557%43%
45.550%50%
48.543%57%
52.533%67%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Fresno St +3.5 wins if Fresno St win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Questions people ask

Who will win Boise State Broncos vs Fresno State Bulldogs?

Our prediction for Boise State Broncos vs Fresno State Bulldogs is Fresno State Bulldogs to win, with a 73% chance. We project Boise State Broncos 18.5 and Fresno State Bulldogs 27.0. Our best bet is Fresno St +1.5 at -293.

What is the projected score for Boise State Broncos vs Fresno State Bulldogs?

We project Boise State Broncos 18.5 and Fresno State Bulldogs 27.0, about 45.5 points in total.

How are Fresno State Bulldogs playing?

Fresno State Bulldogs have 10 wins and 4 losses in their last 14 games, with 363 points scored and 248 conceded. At home they have 6 wins and 2 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, W, newest first.

How are Boise State Broncos playing?

Boise State Broncos have 11 wins and 5 losses in their last 16 games, with 495 points scored and 374 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins and 4 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, L, newest first.

What happened when Fresno State Bulldogs and Boise State Broncos last met?

It ended Boise State Broncos 7, Fresno State Bulldogs 30. In the last 1 meeting Fresno State Bulldogs won 1 and Boise State Broncos won 0.

What is the best bet for Boise State Broncos vs Fresno State Bulldogs?

Fresno St +1.5 at -293, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Fresno St against Boise St. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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