Predictions › United Kingdom › Bolton Wanderers vs Stoke City

ChampionshipSat 10 Oct, 15:00 United Kingdom time

Bolton Wanderers vs Stoke City prediction

Toughsheet Community Stadium

Bolton WanderersHome

1.38 : 1.27

expected goals

Stoke CityAway

39%Bolton

28%Draw

34%Stoke

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1/3

Quick answer

Our prediction for Bolton Wanderers vs Stoke City is Bolton Wanderers to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/3.

Prediction: Bolton Wanderers to win
Chance: 39%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Bolton Wanderers 1.4, Stoke City 1.3
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1/3
Both teams to score: 55%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

75% chanceFair price 1/32 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

13% chanceFair price 13/21 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Bolton Wanderers 39%, the draw 28% and Stoke City 34%. The bookmakers agree and make Bolton Wanderers the favourite at 6/4.
2
Recent form
Bolton Wanderers took 6 points from their last 5 games and Stoke City took 13 from 5. Stoke City come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Bolton Wanderers won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Stoke City won 1 of their last 8 on the road.
4
Goals
Bolton Wanderers score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.6. Stoke City score 1.4 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Bolton Wanderers games and 11 of Stoke City games in that run.
5
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Boltonrecent form-1%
Stokerecent form+6%

Bolton form W W L L LStoke form W W D W WHome edge in this league 20% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Bolton Wanderers vs Stoke City: Bolton Wanderers shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Bolton Wanderers host Stoke City in the Championship on Sat 10 Oct, 15:00 at Toughsheet Community Stadium. Our prediction for Bolton Wanderers vs Stoke City is Bolton Wanderers to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/3.

Bolton Wanderers form

Bolton Wanderers have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 31 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, L, L, newest first.

Stoke City form

Stoke City have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 33 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 1 draw and 6 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, W, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect Bolton Wanderers to score about 1.4 goals and Stoke City about 1.3. That points to Bolton Wanderers to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/3. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 13/2.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Bolton	Stoke
Games played	20	20
Wins	8	7
Draws	4	4
Losses	8	9
Goals scored	32	28
Goals conceded	31	33
Scored per game	1.6	1.4
Conceded per game	1.6	1.6
Home record	5W 2D 3L	6W 3D 3L
Away record	3W 2D 5L	1W 1D 6L
Clean sheets	20%	20%
Both teams scored	55%	65%
Over 2.5 goals	55%	55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Bolton Wanderers to win	36%	7/4	6/4	-8.9%
A Draw	27%	11/4	12/5	-9.2%
Stoke City to win	32%	85/40	13/8	-15.2%
Over 2.5 goals	47%	11/10	4/5	-14.7%
Under 2.5 goals	46%	6/5	5/6	-13.3%
Bolton Wanderers -0.5	36%	7/4	11/8	-14.9%
Stoke City +0.5	59%	8/11	1/2	-13.2%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	75%	1/3
Over 2.5 goals	49%	Evens
Over 3.5 goals	28%	13/5
Both teams to score	55%	5/6
Bolton Wanderers or Draw	66%	1/2
Stoke City or Draw	61%	8/13
Bolton Wanderers to win and Over 2.5	23%	10/3
Stoke City to win and Over 2.5	20%	4/1
Bolton Wanderers clean sheet	28%	13/5
Stoke City clean sheet	25%	3/1

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.1%

1-09.0%

2-18.6%

0-18.2%

1-27.8%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Bolton Wanderers vs Stoke City?

Our prediction for Bolton Wanderers vs Stoke City is Bolton Wanderers to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/3.

What is the score prediction for Bolton Wanderers vs Stoke City?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect Bolton Wanderers to score 1.4 goals and Stoke City 1.3.

Will both teams score in Bolton Wanderers vs Stoke City?

Both teams to score has a 55% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Bolton Wanderers last 20 games and 13 of Stoke City last 20.

How are Bolton Wanderers playing?

How are Stoke City playing?

What is the best bet for Bolton Wanderers vs Stoke City?

Over 1.5 goals at 1/3, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Bolton against Stoke. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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