Predictions › Champions League › Borussia Dortmund vs Real Betis
Champions LeagueWed 4 Nov, 20:00 UTC

Borussia Dortmund vs Real Betis prediction

Signal Iduna Park

Borussia DortmundHome
1.98 : 1.18
expected goals
Real BetisAway
55%Dortmund
23%Draw
22%Betis
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.20

Quick answer

Our prediction for Borussia Dortmund vs Real Betis is Borussia Dortmund to win, with a 55% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.20.

Prediction
Borussia Dortmund to win
Chance
55%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Borussia Dortmund 2.0, Real Betis 1.2
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.20
Both teams to score
60%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
83% chanceFair price 1.202 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Borussia Dortmund to win and Over 2.5
39% chanceFair price 2.581 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Borussia Dortmund 55%, the draw 23% and Real Betis 22%. The bookmakers agree and make Borussia Dortmund the favourite at 1.71.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Borussia Dortmund took 8 points from their last 5 games and Real Betis took 10 from 5. Real Betis come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Borussia Dortmund won 8 of their last 10 games at home. Real Betis won 4 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Borussia Dortmund score 1.8 goals a game and let in 0.8. Real Betis score 1.9 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Borussia Dortmund games and 12 of Real Betis games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 83% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Betisrecent form+3%
  • Dortmundrest between games-5%
  • Betisrest between games-5%
Dortmund form D W D L DBetis form D W L W WHome edge in this league 33% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Borussia Dortmund vs Real Betis: Borussia Dortmund are favourites

The big picture

Borussia Dortmund host Real Betis in the Champions League on Wed 4 Nov, 20:00 at Signal Iduna Park. Our prediction for Borussia Dortmund vs Real Betis is Borussia Dortmund to win, with a 55% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.20.

Borussia Dortmund form

Borussia Dortmund have 14 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 36 goals scored and 17 conceded. At home they have 8 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, L, D, newest first.

Real Betis form

Real Betis have 13 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 37 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, W, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect Borussia Dortmund to score about 2.0 goals and Real Betis about 1.2. That points to Borussia Dortmund to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.20. Our bold bet is Borussia Dortmund to win and Over 2.5 at 2.58.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

DortmundBetis
Games played2020
Wins1413
Draws24
Losses43
Goals scored3637
Goals conceded1728
Scored per game1.81.9
Conceded per game0.81.4
Home record8W 1D 1L9W 1D 1L
Away record6W 1D 3L4W 3D 2L
Clean sheets45%35%
Both teams scored40%65%
Over 2.5 goals50%60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Borussia Dortmund to win51%1.971.71-13.0%
A Draw22%4.504.10-9.0%
Real Betis to win21%4.714.10-13.0%
Over 3.5 goals41%2.432.20-9.6%
Under 3.5 goals53%1.891.63-13.8%
Borussia Dortmund -0.551%1.981.65-16.9%
Real Betis +0.544%2.292.00-12.8%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals83%1.21
Over 2.5 goals61%1.64
Over 3.5 goals39%2.57
Both teams to score60%1.66
Borussia Dortmund or Draw78%1.28
Real Betis or Draw45%2.24
Borussia Dortmund to win and Over 2.539%2.55
Real Betis to win and Over 2.514%6.94
Borussia Dortmund clean sheet31%3.25
Real Betis clean sheet14%7.24

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.5%
2-19.8%
2-08.3%
1-07.8%
3-16.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news

Questions people ask

Who will win Borussia Dortmund vs Real Betis?

Our prediction for Borussia Dortmund vs Real Betis is Borussia Dortmund to win, with a 55% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.20.

What is the score prediction for Borussia Dortmund vs Real Betis?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 2-0. We expect Borussia Dortmund to score 2.0 goals and Real Betis 1.2.

Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund vs Real Betis?

Both teams to score has a 60% chance. Both sides scored in 8 of Borussia Dortmund last 20 games and 13 of Real Betis last 20.

How are Borussia Dortmund playing?

Borussia Dortmund have 14 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 36 goals scored and 17 conceded. At home they have 8 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, L, D, newest first.

How are Real Betis playing?

Real Betis have 13 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 37 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, W, W, newest first.

What is the best bet for Borussia Dortmund vs Real Betis?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.20, with a 83% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Dortmund against Betis. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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