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Predictions › Germany › Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen
BundesligaFri 9 Oct, 18:30 Germany time

Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen prediction

Signal Iduna Park

Borussia DortmundHome
2.46 : 1.05
expected goals
Werder BremenAway
68%Dortmund
18%Draw
14%Bremen
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.18

Quick answer

Our prediction for Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen is Borussia Dortmund to win, with a 68% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.18.

Prediction
Borussia Dortmund to win
Chance
68%
Most likely score
2-1
Expected goals
Borussia Dortmund 2.5, Werder Bremen 1.1
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.18
Both teams to score
60%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
85% chanceFair price 1.182 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Borussia Dortmund to win and both score
34% chanceFair price 2.921 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Borussia Dortmund 68%, the draw 18% and Werder Bremen 14%. The bookmakers agree and make Borussia Dortmund the favourite at 1.34.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Borussia Dortmund took 15 points from their last 5 games and Werder Bremen took 7 from 5. Borussia Dortmund come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Borussia Dortmund won 9 of their last 11 games at home. Werder Bremen won 2 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Borussia Dortmund score 2.1 goals a game and let in 1.1. Werder Bremen score 1.2 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Borussia Dortmund games and 10 of Werder Bremen games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Borussia Dortmund won 2 and Werder Bremen won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Werder Bremen 0, Borussia Dortmund 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 85% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Dortmundrecent form+7%
  • Bremenrecent form+3%
Dortmund form W W W W WBremen form W D W L WHome edge in this league 24% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen: Borussia Dortmund are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Borussia Dortmund host Werder Bremen in the Bundesliga on Fri 9 Oct, 18:30 at Signal Iduna Park. Our prediction for Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen is Borussia Dortmund to win, with a 68% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.18.

Borussia Dortmund form

Borussia Dortmund have 14 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 42 goals scored and 22 conceded. At home they have 9 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, W, newest first.

Werder Bremen form

Werder Bremen have 6 wins, 3 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 33 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Borussia Dortmund won 2, Werder Bremen won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Werder Bremen 0, Borussia Dortmund 2.

Our call

We expect Borussia Dortmund to score about 2.5 goals and Werder Bremen about 1.1. That points to Borussia Dortmund to win, with 2-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.18. Our bold bet is Borussia Dortmund to win and both score at 2.92.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

DortmundBremen
Games played2020
Wins146
Draws13
Losses511
Goals scored4224
Goals conceded2233
Scored per game2.11.2
Conceded per game1.11.6
Home record9W 0D 2L4W 1D 6L
Away record5W 1D 3L2W 2D 5L
Clean sheets45%10%
Both teams scored45%60%
Over 2.5 goals60%50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Borussia Dortmund to win69%1.461.34-8.1%
A Draw18%5.525.00-9.5%
Werder Bremen to win14%7.166.00-16.2%
Over 3.5 goals45%2.231.91-14.3%
Under 3.5 goals49%2.051.80-12.0%
Borussia Dortmund -1.546%2.201.83-16.6%
Werder Bremen +1.548%2.071.80-13.2%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals87%1.15
Over 2.5 goals68%1.47
Over 3.5 goals47%2.14
Both teams to score60%1.67
Borussia Dortmund or Draw86%1.16
Werder Bremen or Draw32%3.11
Borussia Dortmund to win and Over 2.552%1.92
Werder Bremen to win and Over 2.510%10.49
Borussia Dortmund clean sheet35%2.86
Werder Bremen clean sheet9%11.75

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-19.5%
2-09.0%
1-18.2%
3-17.8%
3-07.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news
Premier League

Arsenal Eye Dortmund Forward Beier As Spurs Target Gibbs White

Arsenal are tracking Borussia Dortmund forward Maximilian Beier, while Tottenham Hotspur consider a massive January move for Morgan Gibbs White.

21 Sept 2026
Champions League

Dortmund Teenager Karetsas Back In Training After Health Scare

Borussia Dortmund midfielder Konstantinos Karetsas has returned to training following a medical scare on his Champions League debut.

16 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen?

Our prediction for Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen is Borussia Dortmund to win, with a 68% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.18.

What is the score prediction for Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen?

2-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-0 and 1-1. We expect Borussia Dortmund to score 2.5 goals and Werder Bremen 1.1.

Will both teams score in Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen?

Both teams to score has a 60% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Borussia Dortmund last 20 games and 12 of Werder Bremen last 20.

How are Borussia Dortmund playing?

Borussia Dortmund have 14 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 42 goals scored and 22 conceded. At home they have 9 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, W, newest first.

How are Werder Bremen playing?

Werder Bremen have 6 wins, 3 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 33 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, L, L, newest first.

What happened when Borussia Dortmund and Werder Bremen last met?

It ended Werder Bremen 0, Borussia Dortmund 2. In the last 2 meetings Borussia Dortmund won 2 and Werder Bremen won 0.

What is the best bet for Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.18, with a 85% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Dortmund against Bremen. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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