Predictions › Germany › Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Paderborn 07

BundesligaSat 31 Oct, 14:30 Germany time

Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Paderborn 07 prediction

BORUSSIA-PARK

Borussia MönchengladbachHome

1.93 : 1.36

expected goals

SC Paderborn 07Away

50%Gladbach

23%Draw

27%Paderborn

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.19

Quick answer

Our prediction for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Paderborn 07 is Borussia Mönchengladbach to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.19.

Prediction: Borussia Mönchengladbach to win
Chance: 50%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Borussia Mönchengladbach 1.9, SC Paderborn 07 1.4
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.19
Both teams to score: 64%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

84% chanceFair price 1.192 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Borussia Mönchengladbach to win and Over 2.5

37% chanceFair price 2.731 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Borussia Mönchengladbach 50%, the draw 23% and SC Paderborn 07 27%. The bookmakers agree and make Borussia Mönchengladbach the favourite at 1.80.
2
Recent form
Borussia Mönchengladbach took 0 points from their last 5 games and SC Paderborn 07 took 4 from 5. SC Paderborn 07 come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Borussia Mönchengladbach won 4 of their last 10 games at home. SC Paderborn 07 won 3 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Borussia Mönchengladbach score 1.3 goals a game and let in 2.0. SC Paderborn 07 score 1.6 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of Borussia Mönchengladbach games and 12 of SC Paderborn 07 games in that run.
5
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 84% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Gladbachrecent form-6%
Paderbornrecent form-3%

Gladbach form D L L L LPaderborn form D L W L LHome edge in this league 25% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Paderborn 07: Borussia Mönchengladbach are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Borussia Mönchengladbach host SC Paderborn 07 in the Bundesliga on Sat 31 Oct, 14:30 at BORUSSIA-PARK. Our prediction for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Paderborn 07 is Borussia Mönchengladbach to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.19.

Borussia Mönchengladbach form

Borussia Mönchengladbach have 4 wins, 5 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 40 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, L, newest first.

SC Paderborn 07 form

SC Paderborn 07 have 8 wins, 7 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 31 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, L, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect Borussia Mönchengladbach to score about 1.9 goals and SC Paderborn 07 about 1.4. That points to Borussia Mönchengladbach to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.19. Our bold bet is Borussia Mönchengladbach to win and Over 2.5 at 2.73.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Gladbach	Paderborn
Games played	20	20
Wins	4	8
Draws	5	7
Losses	11	5
Goals scored	26	33
Goals conceded	40	31
Scored per game	1.3	1.6
Conceded per game	2.0	1.6
Home record	4W 3D 3L	5W 2D 3L
Away record	0W 2D 8L	3W 5D 2L
Clean sheets	25%	20%
Both teams scored	55%	65%
Over 2.5 goals	65%	60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Borussia Mönchengladbach to win	48%	2.08	1.80	-13.6%
A Draw	22%	4.46	3.90	-12.6%
SC Paderborn 07 to win	25%	3.93	3.45	-12.2%
Over 3.5 goals	44%	2.28	2.10	-7.9%
Under 3.5 goals	52%	1.92	1.67	-13.2%
Borussia Mönchengladbach -0.5	49%	2.05	1.74	-15.1%
SC Paderborn 07 +0.5	47%	2.12	1.87	-11.8%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	85%	1.18
Over 2.5 goals	64%	1.57
Over 3.5 goals	42%	2.39
Both teams to score	64%	1.56
Borussia Mönchengladbach or Draw	73%	1.36
SC Paderborn 07 or Draw	50%	2.00
Borussia Mönchengladbach to win and Over 2.5	37%	2.73
SC Paderborn 07 to win and Over 2.5	19%	5.36
Borussia Mönchengladbach clean sheet	26%	3.91
SC Paderborn 07 clean sheet	15%	6.87

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.4%

2-19.4%

2-06.9%

1-26.7%

1-06.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Paderborn 07?

Our prediction for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Paderborn 07 is Borussia Mönchengladbach to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.19.

What is the score prediction for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Paderborn 07?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 2-0. We expect Borussia Mönchengladbach to score 1.9 goals and SC Paderborn 07 1.4.

Will both teams score in Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Paderborn 07?

Both teams to score has a 64% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Borussia Mönchengladbach last 20 games and 13 of SC Paderborn 07 last 20.

How are Borussia Mönchengladbach playing?

How are SC Paderborn 07 playing?

What is the best bet for Borussia Mönchengladbach vs SC Paderborn 07?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.19, with a 84% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Gladbach against Paderborn. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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