Predictions › Uruguay › Boston River vs Juventud

Uruguayan Primera DivisionSun 4 Oct, 16:00 Uruguay time

Boston River vs Juventud prediction

Campeones Olímpicos

Boston RiverHome

1.13 : 1.20

expected goals

JuventudAway

34%Boston River

30%Draw

37%Juventud

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.30

Quick answer

Our prediction for Boston River vs Juventud is Juventud to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30.

Prediction: Juventud to win
Chance: 37%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Boston River 1.1, Juventud 1.2
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.30
Both teams to score: 48%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

77% chanceFair price 1.302 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

14% chanceFair price 7.161 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Boston River 34%, the draw 30% and Juventud 37%. The bookmakers agree and make Juventud the favourite at 2.50.
2
Recent form
Boston River took 1 point from their last 5 games and Juventud took 9 from 5. Juventud come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Boston River won 3 of their last 8 games at home. Juventud won 4 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Boston River score 1.0 goals a game and let in 1.6. Juventud score 1.3 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Boston River games and 8 of Juventud games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Boston River won 1 and Juventud won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Juventud 1, Boston River 2.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Boston Riverrecent form-6%
Juventudrecent form+3%
Boston Riverrest between games-5%
Juventudrest between games-5%

Boston River form L L L L DJuventud form D W D D WHome edge in this league 18% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Boston River vs Juventud: Juventud shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Boston River host Juventud in the Uruguayan Primera Division on Sun 4 Oct, 16:00 at Campeones Olímpicos. Our prediction for Boston River vs Juventud is Juventud to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30.

Boston River form

Boston River have 5 wins, 4 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 31 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, D, newest first.

Juventud form

Juventud have 8 wins, 8 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 22 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 5 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, D, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Boston River won 1, Juventud won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Juventud 1, Boston River 2.

Our call

We expect Boston River to score about 1.1 goals and Juventud about 1.2. That points to Juventud to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.16.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Boston River	Juventud
Games played	20	20
Wins	5	8
Draws	4	8
Losses	11	4
Goals scored	20	26
Goals conceded	31	22
Scored per game	1.0	1.3
Conceded per game	1.6	1.1
Home record	3W 3D 2L	4W 3D 3L
Away record	2W 1D 9L	4W 5D 1L
Clean sheets	15%	35%
Both teams scored	55%	60%
Over 2.5 goals	55%	40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Boston River to win	32%	3.16	2.65	-16.1%
A Draw	28%	3.52	3.10	-11.8%
Juventud to win	34%	2.91	2.50	-14.0%
Over 2.5 goals	42%	2.38	1.95	-18.0%
Under 2.5 goals	52%	1.93	1.71	-11.3%
Boston River +0.5	60%	1.66	1.47	-11.8%
Juventud -0.5	35%	2.83	2.35	-17.0%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	69%	1.46
Over 2.5 goals	41%	2.42
Over 3.5 goals	21%	4.81
Both teams to score	48%	2.07
Boston River or Draw	63%	1.58
Juventud or Draw	66%	1.50
Boston River to win and Over 2.5	17%	5.85
Juventud to win and Over 2.5	19%	5.26
Boston River clean sheet	30%	3.33
Juventud clean sheet	32%	3.11

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-114.0%

0-110.8%

0-010.5%

1-010.2%

1-27.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Boston River vs Juventud?

Our prediction for Boston River vs Juventud is Juventud to win, with a 37% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30.

What is the score prediction for Boston River vs Juventud?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 0-0. We expect Boston River to score 1.1 goals and Juventud 1.2.

Will both teams score in Boston River vs Juventud?

Both teams to score has a 48% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Boston River last 20 games and 12 of Juventud last 20.

How are Boston River playing?

How are Juventud playing?

What happened when Boston River and Juventud last met?

It ended Juventud 1, Boston River 2. In the last 2 meetings Boston River won 1 and Juventud won 0.

What is the best bet for Boston River vs Juventud?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.30, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Boston River against Juventud. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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