EagleEyeOdds eagleEagleEyeOddsToday's picks
PredictionsBest bets by countryKenyaNigeriaGhanaSouth AfricaUnited KingdomUnited StatesIndiaTanzaniaUgandaZambiaCameroonIvory CoastAll 54 countriesNewsOur recordHow Eagle 2.0 worksResponsible gambling
Predictions › Brazil › Botafogo vs Atlético-MG
BrasileiraoThu 5 Nov, 00:30 Brazil time

Botafogo vs Atlético-MG prediction

Joao Havelange Stadium

BotafogoHome
1.28 : 1.27
expected goals
Atlético-MGAway
36%Botafogo
28%Draw
36%Atlético-MG
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.32

Quick answer

Our prediction for Botafogo vs Atlético-MG is Botafogo to win, with a 36% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32.

Prediction
Botafogo to win
Chance
36%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Botafogo 1.3, Atlético-MG 1.3
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.32
Both teams to score
53%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
76% chanceFair price 1.322 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
13% chanceFair price 7.431 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Botafogo 36%, the draw 28% and Atlético-MG 36%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Botafogo took 4 points from their last 5 games and Atlético-MG took 11 from 5. Atlético-MG come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Botafogo won 4 of their last 11 games at home. Atlético-MG won 3 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Botafogo score 1.0 goals a game and let in 1.4. Atlético-MG score 1.4 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Botafogo games and 10 of Atlético-MG games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Botafogo won 1 and Atlético-MG won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Atlético-MG 1, Botafogo 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Botafogorecent form-1%
  • Atlético-MGrecent form+4%
  • Botafogorest between games-5%
Botafogo form D W D L LAtlético-MG form D W W W DHome edge in this league 39% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Botafogo vs Atlético-MG: Botafogo shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Botafogo host Atlético-MG in the Brasileirao on Thu 5 Nov, 00:30 at Joao Havelange Stadium. Our prediction for Botafogo vs Atlético-MG is Botafogo to win, with a 36% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32.

Botafogo form

Botafogo have 5 wins, 7 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, L, L, newest first.

Atlético-MG form

Atlético-MG have 10 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 22 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, W, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Botafogo won 1, Atlético-MG won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Atlético-MG 1, Botafogo 1.

Our call

We expect Botafogo to score about 1.3 goals and Atlético-MG about 1.3. That points to Botafogo to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.43.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

BotafogoAtlético-MG
Games played2020
Wins510
Draws76
Losses84
Goals scored2028
Goals conceded2722
Scored per game1.01.4
Conceded per game1.41.1
Home record4W 4D 3L7W 3D 1L
Away record1W 3D 5L3W 3D 3L
Clean sheets20%25%
Both teams scored60%55%
Over 2.5 goals45%50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals73%1.37
Over 2.5 goals47%2.13
Over 3.5 goals25%3.95
Both teams to score53%1.90
Botafogo or Draw64%1.55
Atlético-MG or Draw64%1.56
Botafogo to win and Over 2.520%4.88
Atlético-MG to win and Over 2.520%4.95
Botafogo clean sheet28%3.56
Atlético-MG clean sheet28%3.59

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.5%
1-09.2%
0-19.2%
0-08.6%
2-18.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Botafogo vs Atlético-MG?

Our prediction for Botafogo vs Atlético-MG is Botafogo to win, with a 36% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.32.

What is the score prediction for Botafogo vs Atlético-MG?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-1. We expect Botafogo to score 1.3 goals and Atlético-MG 1.3.

Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Atlético-MG?

Both teams to score has a 53% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Botafogo last 20 games and 11 of Atlético-MG last 20.

How are Botafogo playing?

Botafogo have 5 wins, 7 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, L, L, newest first.

How are Atlético-MG playing?

Atlético-MG have 10 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 22 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, W, D, newest first.

What happened when Botafogo and Atlético-MG last met?

It ended Atlético-MG 1, Botafogo 1. In the last 2 meetings Botafogo won 1 and Atlético-MG won 0.

What is the best bet for Botafogo vs Atlético-MG?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.32, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Botafogo against Atlético-MG. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
  • 18 plus only. Betting is for adults. In some countries the legal age is higher and in some it is not allowed at all. You alone are responsible for checking the law where you live.
  • Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
  • No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
  • Betting can harm you. If it stops being fun, if you chase losses, or if you hide it from people close to you, stop and get help. Free and private support is available from BeGambleAware, GamCare and Gamblers Anonymous. Read our responsible gambling page for tools that block betting sites.

Full terms are on our disclaimer and terms pages.

Note: Never stake money you need for rent, food, bills or anyone who depends on you.