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Predictions › Brazil › Botafogo vs Chapecoense
BrasileiraoSat 17 Oct, 21:00 Brazil time

Botafogo vs Chapecoense prediction

Joao Havelange Stadium

BotafogoHome
1.82 : 1.16
expected goals
ChapecoenseAway
52%Botafogo
24%Draw
24%Chapecoense
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.28

Quick answer

Our prediction for Botafogo vs Chapecoense is Botafogo to win, with a 52% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28.

Prediction
Botafogo to win
Chance
52%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Botafogo 1.8, Chapecoense 1.2
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.28
Both teams to score
58%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
78% chanceFair price 1.282 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Botafogo to win and Over 2.5
34% chanceFair price 2.951 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Botafogo 52%, the draw 24% and Chapecoense 24%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Botafogo took 5 points from their last 5 games and Chapecoense took 7 from 5. Chapecoense come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Botafogo won 3 of their last 11 games at home. Chapecoense won 1 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Botafogo score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.4. Chapecoense score 1.0 and let in 2.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Botafogo games and 13 of Chapecoense games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Botafogo won 1 and Chapecoense won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Chapecoense 1, Botafogo 4.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Botafogorecent form-1%
Botafogo form L W D D LChapecoense form D L W L WHome edge in this league 38% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Botafogo vs Chapecoense: Botafogo are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Botafogo host Chapecoense in the Brasileirao on Sat 17 Oct, 21:00 at Joao Havelange Stadium. Our prediction for Botafogo vs Chapecoense is Botafogo to win, with a 52% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28.

Botafogo form

Botafogo have 6 wins, 8 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 6 draws and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, D, L, newest first.

Chapecoense form

Chapecoense have 2 wins, 5 draws and 13 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 42 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 3 draws and 7 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Botafogo won 1, Chapecoense won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Chapecoense 1, Botafogo 4.

Our call

We expect Botafogo to score about 1.8 goals and Chapecoense about 1.2. That points to Botafogo to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28. Our bold bet is Botafogo to win and Over 2.5 at 2.95.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

BotafogoChapecoense
Games played2020
Wins62
Draws85
Losses613
Goals scored2720
Goals conceded2742
Scored per game1.41.0
Conceded per game1.42.1
Home record3W 6D 2L1W 2D 6L
Away record3W 2D 4L1W 3D 7L
Clean sheets15%5%
Both teams scored70%70%
Over 2.5 goals55%65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals81%1.24
Over 2.5 goals57%1.74
Over 3.5 goals35%2.86
Both teams to score58%1.72
Botafogo or Draw76%1.31
Chapecoense or Draw48%2.09
Botafogo to win and Over 2.535%2.84
Chapecoense to win and Over 2.515%6.70
Botafogo clean sheet31%3.20
Chapecoense clean sheet16%6.20

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.3%
2-19.8%
1-08.6%
2-08.4%
1-26.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Botafogo vs Chapecoense?

Our prediction for Botafogo vs Chapecoense is Botafogo to win, with a 52% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28.

What is the score prediction for Botafogo vs Chapecoense?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Botafogo to score 1.8 goals and Chapecoense 1.2.

Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Chapecoense?

Both teams to score has a 58% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of Botafogo last 20 games and 14 of Chapecoense last 20.

How are Botafogo playing?

Botafogo have 6 wins, 8 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 6 draws and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, D, L, newest first.

How are Chapecoense playing?

Chapecoense have 2 wins, 5 draws and 13 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 42 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 3 draws and 7 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, L, W, newest first.

What happened when Botafogo and Chapecoense last met?

It ended Chapecoense 1, Botafogo 4. In the last 1 meeting Botafogo won 1 and Chapecoense won 0.

What is the best bet for Botafogo vs Chapecoense?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.28, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Botafogo against Chapecoense. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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