Predictions › Brazil › Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama

BrasileiraoWed 7 Oct, 23:30 Brazil time

Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama prediction

Joao Havelange Stadium

BotafogoHome

1.48 : 1.35

expected goals

Vasco da GamaAway

40%Botafogo

26%Draw

34%Vasco

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.30

Quick answer

Our prediction for Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama is Botafogo to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

Prediction: Botafogo to win
Chance: 40%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Botafogo 1.5, Vasco da Gama 1.4
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.30
Both teams to score: 58%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

77% chanceFair price 1.302 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

12% chanceFair price 8.011 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Botafogo 40%, the draw 26% and Vasco da Gama 34%. The bookmakers see it the other way and make Vasco da Gama the favourite at 2.45, so take care with this one.
2
Recent form
Botafogo took 5 points from their last 5 games and Vasco da Gama took 9 from 5. Vasco da Gama come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Botafogo won 3 of their last 11 games at home. Vasco da Gama won 1 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Botafogo score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.4. Vasco da Gama score 1.1 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Botafogo games and 11 of Vasco da Gama games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Botafogo won 2 and Vasco da Gama won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Vasco da Gama 1, Botafogo 2.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Botafogorecent form-1%
Vascorecent form+3%

Botafogo form L W D D LVasco form W W W D LHome edge in this league 38% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama: Botafogo shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Botafogo host Vasco da Gama in the Brasileirao on Wed 7 Oct, 23:30 at Joao Havelange Stadium. Our prediction for Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama is Botafogo to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

Botafogo form

Botafogo have 6 wins, 8 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 6 draws and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, D, L, newest first.

Vasco da Gama form

Vasco da Gama have 6 wins, 5 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 29 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 4 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Botafogo won 2, Vasco da Gama won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Vasco da Gama 1, Botafogo 2.

Our call

We expect Botafogo to score about 1.5 goals and Vasco da Gama about 1.4. That points to Botafogo to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 8.01.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Botafogo	Vasco
Games played	20	20
Wins	6	6
Draws	8	5
Losses	6	9
Goals scored	27	23
Goals conceded	27	29
Scored per game	1.4	1.1
Conceded per game	1.4	1.4
Home record	3W 6D 2L	5W 1D 4L
Away record	3W 2D 4L	1W 4D 5L
Clean sheets	15%	15%
Both teams scored	70%	55%
Over 2.5 goals	55%	55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Botafogo to win	37%	2.71	2.65	-2.2%
A Draw	26%	3.91	3.30	-15.7%
Vasco da Gama to win	32%	3.14	2.45	-22.0%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	2.01	1.74	-13.6%
Under 2.5 goals	44%	2.27	1.91	-15.8%
Botafogo +0.5	61%	1.65	1.49	-9.6%
Vasco da Gama -0.5	35%	2.85	2.30	-19.4%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	78%	1.28
Over 2.5 goals	54%	1.86
Over 3.5 goals	32%	3.17
Both teams to score	58%	1.73
Botafogo or Draw	66%	1.51
Vasco da Gama or Draw	60%	1.66
Botafogo to win and Over 2.5	25%	3.95
Vasco da Gama to win and Over 2.5	21%	4.74
Botafogo clean sheet	26%	3.85
Vasco da Gama clean sheet	23%	4.41

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.5%

2-18.7%

1-08.0%

1-27.9%

0-17.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama?

Our prediction for Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama is Botafogo to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

What is the score prediction for Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Botafogo to score 1.5 goals and Vasco da Gama 1.4.

Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama?

Both teams to score has a 58% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of Botafogo last 20 games and 11 of Vasco da Gama last 20.

How are Botafogo playing?

How are Vasco da Gama playing?

What happened when Botafogo and Vasco da Gama last met?

It ended Vasco da Gama 1, Botafogo 2. In the last 2 meetings Botafogo won 2 and Vasco da Gama won 0.

What is the best bet for Botafogo vs Vasco da Gama?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.30, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Botafogo against Vasco. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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