Predictions › France › Boulogne vs Nantes

Ligue 2Sat 19 Sept, 12:00 France time

Boulogne vs Nantes prediction

Stade de la Libération

BoulogneHome

1.09 : 1.38

expected goals

NantesAway

29%Boulogne

28%Draw

43%Nantes

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.27

Quick answer

Our prediction for Boulogne vs Nantes is Nantes to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.27.

Prediction: Nantes to win
Chance: 43%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Boulogne 1.1, Nantes 1.4
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.27
Both teams to score: 50%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

79% chanceFair price 1.272 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

14% chanceFair price 7.411 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Boulogne 29%, the draw 28% and Nantes 43%. The bookmakers agree and make Nantes the favourite at 2.15.
2
Recent form
Boulogne took 4 points from their last 5 games and Nantes took 4 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.
3
Home and away
Boulogne won 1 of their last 10 games at home. Nantes won 0 of their last 11 on the road.
4
Goals
Boulogne score 0.8 goals a game and let in 1.1. Nantes score 0.9 and let in 1.5. Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of Boulogne games and 9 of Nantes games in that run.
5
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 79% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Boulognerecent form-1%
Nantesrecent form-3%
Boulognerest between games-5%
Nantesrest between games-5%

Boulogne form D D D D LNantes form L W D L LHome edge in this league 11% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Boulogne vs Nantes: Nantes shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Boulogne host Nantes in the Ligue 2 on Sat 19 Sept, 12:00 at Stade de la Libération. Our prediction for Boulogne vs Nantes is Nantes to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.27.

Boulogne form

Boulogne have 4 wins, 9 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 15 goals scored and 21 conceded. At home they have 1 win, 5 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, D, D, D, L, newest first.

Nantes form

Nantes have 3 wins, 4 draws and 13 losses in their last 20 games, with 18 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 3 draws and 8 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, L, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect Boulogne to score about 1.1 goals and Nantes about 1.4. That points to Nantes to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.27. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.41.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Boulogne	Nantes
Games played	20	20
Wins	4	3
Draws	9	4
Losses	7	13
Goals scored	15	18
Goals conceded	21	30
Scored per game	0.8	0.9
Conceded per game	1.1	1.5
Home record	1W 5D 4L	3W 1D 5L
Away record	3W 4D 3L	0W 3D 8L
Clean sheets	45%	25%
Both teams scored	40%	40%
Over 2.5 goals	30%	45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Boulogne to win	27%	3.67	3.30	-10.1%
A Draw	27%	3.73	3.25	-12.9%
Nantes to win	40%	2.51	2.15	-14.5%
Over 2.5 goals	42%	2.38	2.05	-13.8%
Under 2.5 goals	55%	1.80	1.65	-8.8%
Boulogne +0.5	56%	1.80	1.65	-8.4%
Nantes -0.5	42%	2.39	2.00	-16.3%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	71%	1.40
Over 2.5 goals	45%	2.24
Over 3.5 goals	23%	4.26
Both teams to score	50%	1.99
Boulogne or Draw	57%	1.75
Nantes or Draw	71%	1.41
Boulogne to win and Over 2.5	15%	6.51
Nantes to win and Over 2.5	24%	4.22
Boulogne clean sheet	25%	3.96
Nantes clean sheet	34%	2.97

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.5%

0-110.9%

0-09.3%

1-28.8%

1-08.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Boulogne vs Nantes?

Our prediction for Boulogne vs Nantes is Nantes to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.27.

What is the score prediction for Boulogne vs Nantes?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 0-0. We expect Boulogne to score 1.1 goals and Nantes 1.4.

Will both teams score in Boulogne vs Nantes?

Both teams to score has a 50% chance. Both sides scored in 8 of Boulogne last 20 games and 8 of Nantes last 20.

How are Boulogne playing?

How are Nantes playing?

What is the best bet for Boulogne vs Nantes?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.27, with a 79% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Boulogne against Nantes. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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