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Predictions › United States › Bowling Green Falcons vs Miami (OH) RedHawks
College FootballSat 3 Oct, 15:30 United States time

Bowling Green Falcons vs Miami (OH) RedHawks prediction

Yager Stadium

Bowling Green FalconsAway
15.5 : 30.7
projected points
Miami (OH) RedHawksHome
19%Bowling Green
81%Miami OH
Eagle safe pickMiami OH -4.5
-303

Quick answer

Our prediction for Bowling Green Falcons vs Miami (OH) RedHawks is Miami (OH) RedHawks to win, with a 81% chance. We project Bowling Green Falcons 15.5 and Miami (OH) RedHawks 30.7. Our best bet is Miami OH -4.5 at -303.

Prediction
Miami (OH) RedHawks to win
Chance
81%
Projected score
Bowling Green Falcons 15, Miami (OH) RedHawks 31
Projected total
46.2 points
Best bet
Miami OH -4.5 at -303

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Miami OH -4.5
75% chanceFair price -3032 units

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Miami (OH) RedHawks 81% and Bowling Green Falcons 19%. The bookmakers agree and make Miami (OH) RedHawks the favourite at -649.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Miami (OH) RedHawks won 2 of their last 5 and Bowling Green Falcons won 1 of their last 5. Miami (OH) RedHawks come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Miami (OH) RedHawks won 6 of their last 8 games at home. Bowling Green Falcons won 1 of their last 7 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Miami (OH) RedHawks score 26.6 points a game and let in 22.8. Bowling Green Falcons score 16.6 and let in 28.2. Their recent games average 49.4 and 44.9 points in total, and the market line is 45.5.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Miami OH -4.5 has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Miami OHrest between games-5%
  • Bowling Greenrest between games-5%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Bowling Green Falcons vs Miami (OH) RedHawks: Miami (OH) RedHawks are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Miami (OH) RedHawks host Bowling Green Falcons in the College Football on Sat 3 Oct, 15:30 at Yager Stadium. Our prediction for Bowling Green Falcons vs Miami (OH) RedHawks is Miami (OH) RedHawks to win, with a 81% chance. We project Bowling Green Falcons 15.5 and Miami (OH) RedHawks 30.7. Our best bet is Miami OH -4.5 at -303.

Miami (OH) RedHawks form

Miami (OH) RedHawks have 9 wins and 7 losses in their last 16 games, with 426 points scored and 364 conceded. At home they have 6 wins and 2 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, L, L, newest first.

Bowling Green Falcons form

Bowling Green Falcons have 3 wins and 11 losses in their last 14 games, with 233 points scored and 395 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win and 6 losses from 7. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect Bowling Green Falcons to score about 15.5 points and Miami (OH) RedHawks about 30.7. That points to Miami (OH) RedHawks to win. Our safest bet is Miami OH -4.5 at -303.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 16 games in all competitions.

Miami OHBowling Green
Games played1614
Wins93
Losses711
Points scored426233
Points conceded364395
Scored per game26.616.6
Conceded per game22.828.2
Home record6W 2L2W 5L
Away record3W 5L1W 6L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against Draft Kings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Miami OH to win81%-419-649-6.9%
Bowling Green to win17%+496+470-4.3%
Miami OH -14.549%+105-108-6.2%
Bowling Green +14.545%+122-112-14.7%
Over 45.5 points49%+106-112-8.2%
Under 45.5 points45%+121-108-12.8%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Miami OH spreadCoversFair
Miami OH -22.532%+208
Miami OH -18.542%+139
Miami OH -15.549%+103
Miami OH -12.557%-131
Miami OH -8.566%-197
Total pointsOverUnder
39.566%34%
43.557%43%
46.549%51%
49.542%58%
53.532%68%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Miami OH +3.5 wins if Miami OH win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Questions people ask

Who will win Bowling Green Falcons vs Miami (OH) RedHawks?

Our prediction for Bowling Green Falcons vs Miami (OH) RedHawks is Miami (OH) RedHawks to win, with a 81% chance. We project Bowling Green Falcons 15.5 and Miami (OH) RedHawks 30.7. Our best bet is Miami OH -4.5 at -303.

What is the projected score for Bowling Green Falcons vs Miami (OH) RedHawks?

We project Bowling Green Falcons 15.5 and Miami (OH) RedHawks 30.7, about 46.2 points in total.

How are Miami (OH) RedHawks playing?

Miami (OH) RedHawks have 9 wins and 7 losses in their last 16 games, with 426 points scored and 364 conceded. At home they have 6 wins and 2 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, L, L, newest first.

How are Bowling Green Falcons playing?

Bowling Green Falcons have 3 wins and 11 losses in their last 14 games, with 233 points scored and 395 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win and 6 losses from 7. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, W, newest first.

What is the best bet for Bowling Green Falcons vs Miami (OH) RedHawks?

Miami OH -4.5 at -303, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Miami OH against Bowling Green. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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  • Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
  • No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
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