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Predictions › Colombia › Boyacá Chicó FC vs Atlético Nacional
Colombian Primera ASat 17 Oct, 20:00 Colombia time

Boyacá Chicó FC vs Atlético Nacional prediction

La Independencia

Boyacá Chicó FCHome
0.93 : 1.52
expected goals
Atlético NacionalAway
22%Chicó FC
27%Draw
50%Atl. Nacional
Eagle safe pickAtlético Nacional or Draw
1.31

Quick answer

Our prediction for Boyacá Chicó FC vs Atlético Nacional is Atlético Nacional to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Atlético Nacional or Draw at 1.31.

Prediction
Atlético Nacional to win
Chance
50%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Boyacá Chicó FC 0.9, Atlético Nacional 1.5
Best bet
Atlético Nacional or Draw at 1.31
Both teams to score
48%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Atlético Nacional or Draw
76% chanceFair price 1.312 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

A Draw
27% chancePrice 3.651 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Boyacá Chicó FC 22%, the draw 27% and Atlético Nacional 50%. The bookmakers agree and make Atlético Nacional the favourite at 1.56.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Boyacá Chicó FC took 7 points from their last 5 games and Atlético Nacional took 10 from 5. Atlético Nacional come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Boyacá Chicó FC won 6 of their last 9 games at home. Atlético Nacional won 7 of their last 12 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Boyacá Chicó FC score 0.8 goals a game and let in 1.6. Atlético Nacional score 2.0 and let in 1.0. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Boyacá Chicó FC games and 11 of Atlético Nacional games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Boyacá Chicó FC won 0 and Atlético Nacional won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Atlético Nacional 4, Boyacá Chicó FC 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Atlético Nacional or Draw has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Atl. Nacionalrecent form+3%
Chicó FC form D W L L WAtl. Nacional form W D L W WHome edge in this league 39% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Boyacá Chicó FC vs Atlético Nacional: Atlético Nacional are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Boyacá Chicó FC host Atlético Nacional in the Colombian Primera A on Sat 17 Oct, 20:00 at La Independencia. Our prediction for Boyacá Chicó FC vs Atlético Nacional is Atlético Nacional to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Atlético Nacional or Draw at 1.31.

Boyacá Chicó FC form

Boyacá Chicó FC have 6 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 16 goals scored and 33 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, L, W, newest first.

Atlético Nacional form

Atlético Nacional have 14 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 40 goals scored and 20 conceded. Away from home they have 7 wins, 0 draws and 5 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Boyacá Chicó FC won 0, Atlético Nacional won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Atlético Nacional 4, Boyacá Chicó FC 0.

Our call

We expect Boyacá Chicó FC to score about 0.9 goals and Atlético Nacional about 1.5. That points to Atlético Nacional to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Atlético Nacional or Draw at 1.31. Our bold bet is A Draw at 3.65.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Chicó FCAtl. Nacional
Games played2020
Wins614
Draws41
Losses105
Goals scored1640
Goals conceded3320
Scored per game0.82.0
Conceded per game1.61.0
Home record6W 2D 1L7W 1D 0L
Away record0W 2D 9L7W 0D 5L
Clean sheets35%25%
Both teams scored20%50%
Over 2.5 goals45%55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Boyacá Chicó FC to win22%4.535.50+21.4%
A Draw27%3.703.65-1.2%
Atlético Nacional to win47%2.131.56-27.1%
Over 2.5 goals43%2.321.95-15.7%
Under 2.5 goals50%2.001.74-12.8%
Boyacá Chicó FC +0.540%2.482.25-9.3%
Atlético Nacional -0.553%1.891.53-19.2%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals71%1.41
Over 2.5 goals44%2.26
Over 3.5 goals23%4.32
Both teams to score48%2.08
Boyacá Chicó FC or Draw50%2.01
Atlético Nacional or Draw78%1.29
Boyacá Chicó FC to win and Over 2.511%8.81
Atlético Nacional to win and Over 2.528%3.58
Boyacá Chicó FC clean sheet22%4.57
Atlético Nacional clean sheet39%2.54

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.9%
0-112.4%
0-210.0%
0-09.4%
1-29.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Boyacá Chicó FC vs Atlético Nacional?

Our prediction for Boyacá Chicó FC vs Atlético Nacional is Atlético Nacional to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Atlético Nacional or Draw at 1.31.

What is the score prediction for Boyacá Chicó FC vs Atlético Nacional?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 0-2. We expect Boyacá Chicó FC to score 0.9 goals and Atlético Nacional 1.5.

Will both teams score in Boyacá Chicó FC vs Atlético Nacional?

Both teams to score has a 48% chance. Both sides scored in 4 of Boyacá Chicó FC last 20 games and 10 of Atlético Nacional last 20.

How are Boyacá Chicó FC playing?

Boyacá Chicó FC have 6 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 16 goals scored and 33 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, L, W, newest first.

How are Atlético Nacional playing?

Atlético Nacional have 14 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 40 goals scored and 20 conceded. Away from home they have 7 wins, 0 draws and 5 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Boyacá Chicó FC and Atlético Nacional last met?

It ended Atlético Nacional 4, Boyacá Chicó FC 0. In the last 2 meetings Boyacá Chicó FC won 0 and Atlético Nacional won 1.

What is the best bet for Boyacá Chicó FC vs Atlético Nacional?

Atlético Nacional or Draw at 1.31, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Chicó FC against Atl. Nacional. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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