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Predictions › Colombia › Boyacá Chicó FC vs Independiente Medellín
Colombian Primera ASat 12 Sept, 23:10 Colombia time

Boyacá Chicó FC vs Independiente Medellín prediction

La Independencia

Boyacá Chicó FCHome
2-1
final score
Independiente MedellínAway
26%Chicó FC
28%Draw
46%Ind. Medellín
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.28

Quick answer

Our prediction for Boyacá Chicó FC vs Independiente Medellín is Independiente Medellín to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.28.

Prediction
Independiente Medellín to win
Chance
46%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Boyacá Chicó FC 1.0, Independiente Medellín 1.4
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.28
Both teams to score
48%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
78% chanceFair price 1.282 unitswon
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Boyacá Chicó FC to win
26% chancePrice 4.30+13.3% value2 unitswon

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Boyacá Chicó FC 26%, the draw 28% and Independiente Medellín 46%. The bookmakers agree and make Independiente Medellín the favourite at 2.00.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Boyacá Chicó FC took 5 points from their last 5 games and Independiente Medellín took 12 from 5. Independiente Medellín come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Boyacá Chicó FC won 6 of their last 9 games at home. Independiente Medellín won 4 of their last 8 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Boyacá Chicó FC score 0.9 goals a game and let in 1.7. Independiente Medellín score 1.4 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Boyacá Chicó FC games and 11 of Independiente Medellín games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Boyacá Chicó FC won 0 and Independiente Medellín won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Independiente Medellín 2, Boyacá Chicó FC 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Chicó FCrecent form-1%
  • Ind. Medellínrecent form+4%
Chicó FC form W D D L LInd. Medellín form W W W L WHome edge in this league 40% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Boyacá Chicó FC vs Independiente Medellín: Independiente Medellín are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Boyacá Chicó FC host Independiente Medellín in the Colombian Primera A on Sat 12 Sept, 23:10 at La Independencia. Our prediction for Boyacá Chicó FC vs Independiente Medellín is Independiente Medellín to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.28.

Boyacá Chicó FC form

Boyacá Chicó FC have 6 wins, 3 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 18 goals scored and 34 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read W, D, D, L, L, newest first.

Independiente Medellín form

Independiente Medellín have 11 wins, 2 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Boyacá Chicó FC won 0, Independiente Medellín won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Independiente Medellín 2, Boyacá Chicó FC 0.

Our call

We expect Boyacá Chicó FC to score about 1.0 goals and Independiente Medellín about 1.4. That points to Independiente Medellín to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.28. Our bold bet is Boyacá Chicó FC to win at 4.30.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Chicó FCInd. Medellín
Games played2020
Wins611
Draws32
Losses117
Goals scored1829
Goals conceded3426
Scored per game0.91.4
Conceded per game1.71.3
Home record6W 2D 1L7W 1D 4L
Away record0W 1D 10L4W 1D 3L
Clean sheets30%30%
Both teams scored20%55%
Over 2.5 goals45%55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Boyacá Chicó FC to win25%3.964.30+8.7%
A Draw28%3.543.40-3.9%
Independiente Medellín to win42%2.381.80-24.4%
Over 2.5 goals40%2.472.05-17.1%
Under 2.5 goals54%1.841.71-6.8%
Boyacá Chicó FC +0.547%2.141.95-8.8%
Independiente Medellín -0.548%2.081.77-14.9%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals70%1.43
Over 2.5 goals43%2.32
Over 3.5 goals22%4.51
Both teams to score48%2.07
Boyacá Chicó FC or Draw54%1.85
Independiente Medellín or Draw74%1.34
Boyacá Chicó FC to win and Over 2.513%7.69
Independiente Medellín to win and Over 2.525%4.02
Boyacá Chicó FC clean sheet24%4.10
Independiente Medellín clean sheet37%2.69

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.4%
0-112.0%
0-09.8%
0-29.0%
1-28.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Boyacá Chicó FC vs Independiente Medellín?

Our prediction for Boyacá Chicó FC vs Independiente Medellín is Independiente Medellín to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.28.

What is the score prediction for Boyacá Chicó FC vs Independiente Medellín?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 0-0. We expect Boyacá Chicó FC to score 1.0 goals and Independiente Medellín 1.4.

Will both teams score in Boyacá Chicó FC vs Independiente Medellín?

Both teams to score has a 48% chance. Both sides scored in 4 of Boyacá Chicó FC last 20 games and 11 of Independiente Medellín last 20.

How are Boyacá Chicó FC playing?

Boyacá Chicó FC have 6 wins, 3 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 18 goals scored and 34 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read W, D, D, L, L, newest first.

How are Independiente Medellín playing?

Independiente Medellín have 11 wins, 2 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Boyacá Chicó FC and Independiente Medellín last met?

It ended Independiente Medellín 2, Boyacá Chicó FC 0. In the last 1 meeting Boyacá Chicó FC won 0 and Independiente Medellín won 1.

What is the best bet for Boyacá Chicó FC vs Independiente Medellín?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.28, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Chicó FC against Ind. Medellín. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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