Predictions › Portugal › Braga vs Gil Vicente

Primeira LigaMon 19 Oct, 19:15 Portugal time

Braga vs Gil Vicente prediction

Estádio Municipal de Braga

BragaHome

1.68 : 0.86

expected goals

Gil VicenteAway

56%Braga

25%Draw

18%Gil Vicente

Eagle safe pickBraga or Draw

1.27

Quick answer

Our prediction for Braga vs Gil Vicente is Braga to win, with a 56% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Braga or Draw at 1.27.

Prediction: Braga to win
Chance: 56%
Most likely score: 1-0
Expected goals: Braga 1.7, Gil Vicente 0.9
Best bet: Braga or Draw at 1.27
Both teams to score: 48%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Braga or Draw

79% chanceFair price 1.272 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Braga to win and Over 2.5

31% chanceFair price 3.231 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Braga 56%, the draw 25% and Gil Vicente 18%. The bookmakers agree and make Braga the favourite at 1.61.
2
Recent form
Braga took 7 points from their last 5 games and Gil Vicente took 5 from 5. Braga come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Braga won 4 of their last 10 games at home. Gil Vicente won 1 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Braga score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.3. Gil Vicente score 1.1 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Braga games and 11 of Gil Vicente games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Braga won 0 and Gil Vicente won 2 with 0 draws. The last one ended Gil Vicente 2, Braga 1.
6
The safest bet
Braga or Draw has a 79% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Bragarecent form+1%
Gil Vicenterecent form-3%
Bragarest between games-5%
Gil Vicenterest between games-5%

Braga form D D W L WGil Vicente form D D L L DHome edge in this league 19% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Braga vs Gil Vicente: Braga are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Braga host Gil Vicente in the Primeira Liga on Mon 19 Oct, 19:15 at Estádio Municipal de Braga. Our prediction for Braga vs Gil Vicente is Braga to win, with a 56% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Braga or Draw at 1.27.

Braga form

Braga have 8 wins, 7 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, L, W, newest first.

Gil Vicente form

Gil Vicente have 6 wins, 6 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 4 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, L, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Braga won 0, Gil Vicente won 2 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Gil Vicente 2, Braga 1.

Our call

We expect Braga to score about 1.7 goals and Gil Vicente about 0.9. That points to Braga to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Braga or Draw at 1.27. Our bold bet is Braga to win and Over 2.5 at 3.23.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Braga	Gil Vicente
Games played	20	20
Wins	8	6
Draws	7	6
Losses	5	8
Goals scored	28	22
Goals conceded	26	26
Scored per game	1.4	1.1
Conceded per game	1.3	1.3
Home record	4W 4D 2L	5W 2D 4L
Away record	4W 3D 3L	1W 4D 4L
Clean sheets	30%	30%
Both teams scored	70%	50%
Over 2.5 goals	60%	55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Braga to win	52%	1.92	1.61	-16.4%
A Draw	24%	4.08	3.90	-4.5%
Gil Vicente to win	18%	5.53	5.50	-0.6%
Over 2.5 goals	45%	2.22	1.91	-13.9%
Under 2.5 goals	48%	2.08	1.83	-11.9%
Braga -0.5	54%	1.86	1.57	-15.5%
Gil Vicente +0.5	39%	2.54	2.25	-11.4%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	73%	1.37
Over 2.5 goals	47%	2.13
Over 3.5 goals	25%	3.95
Both teams to score	48%	2.09
Braga or Draw	82%	1.23
Gil Vicente or Draw	44%	2.28
Braga to win and Over 2.5	33%	3.07
Gil Vicente to win and Over 2.5	9%	10.57
Braga clean sheet	42%	2.37
Gil Vicente clean sheet	19%	5.39

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-012.5%

1-112.1%

2-011.1%

2-19.6%

0-08.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Braga vs Gil Vicente?

Our prediction for Braga vs Gil Vicente is Braga to win, with a 56% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Braga or Draw at 1.27.

What is the score prediction for Braga vs Gil Vicente?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 2-0. We expect Braga to score 1.7 goals and Gil Vicente 0.9.

Will both teams score in Braga vs Gil Vicente?

Both teams to score has a 48% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of Braga last 20 games and 10 of Gil Vicente last 20.

How are Braga playing?

How are Gil Vicente playing?

What happened when Braga and Gil Vicente last met?

It ended Gil Vicente 2, Braga 1. In the last 2 meetings Braga won 0 and Gil Vicente won 2.

What is the best bet for Braga vs Gil Vicente?

Braga or Draw at 1.27, with a 79% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Braga against Gil Vicente. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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