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Predictions › Conference League › Braga vs KAA Gent
Conference LeagueThu 22 Oct, 19:00 UTC

Braga vs KAA Gent prediction

Estádio Municipal de Braga

BragaHome
1.63 : 1.25
expected goals
KAA GentAway
46%Braga
26%Draw
29%KAA Gent
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.30

Quick answer

Our prediction for Braga vs KAA Gent is Braga to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

Prediction
Braga to win
Chance
46%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Braga 1.6, KAA Gent 1.3
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.30
Both teams to score
58%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
77% chanceFair price 1.302 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Braga to win and Over 2.5
28% chanceFair price 3.631 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Braga 46%, the draw 26% and KAA Gent 29%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Braga took 7 points from their last 5 games and KAA Gent took 13 from 5. KAA Gent come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Braga won 4 of their last 10 games at home. KAA Gent won 4 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Braga score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.3. KAA Gent score 1.1 and let in 1.0. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Braga games and 7 of KAA Gent games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Bragarecent form+1%
  • KAA Gentrecent form+4%
  • KAA Gentrest between games-2%
Braga form D D W L WKAA Gent form D W D W WHome edge in this league 38% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Braga vs KAA Gent: Braga are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Braga host KAA Gent in the Conference League on Thu 22 Oct, 19:00 at Estádio Municipal de Braga. Our prediction for Braga vs KAA Gent is Braga to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

Braga form

Braga have 8 wins, 7 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, L, W, newest first.

KAA Gent form

KAA Gent have 8 wins, 8 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 20 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, W, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect Braga to score about 1.6 goals and KAA Gent about 1.3. That points to Braga to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30. Our bold bet is Braga to win and Over 2.5 at 3.63.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

BragaKAA Gent
Games played2020
Wins88
Draws78
Losses54
Goals scored2823
Goals conceded2620
Scored per game1.41.1
Conceded per game1.31.0
Home record4W 4D 2L4W 5D 1L
Away record4W 3D 3L4W 3D 3L
Clean sheets30%35%
Both teams scored70%50%
Over 2.5 goals60%35%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals79%1.27
Over 2.5 goals55%1.82
Over 3.5 goals33%3.06
Both teams to score58%1.72
Braga or Draw71%1.40
KAA Gent or Draw54%1.84
Braga to win and Over 2.530%3.37
KAA Gent to win and Over 2.518%5.56
Braga clean sheet29%3.50
KAA Gent clean sheet20%5.11

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.1%
2-19.3%
1-08.4%
2-07.4%
1-27.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Braga vs KAA Gent?

Our prediction for Braga vs KAA Gent is Braga to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

What is the score prediction for Braga vs KAA Gent?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Braga to score 1.6 goals and KAA Gent 1.3.

Will both teams score in Braga vs KAA Gent?

Both teams to score has a 58% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of Braga last 20 games and 10 of KAA Gent last 20.

How are Braga playing?

Braga have 8 wins, 7 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, L, W, newest first.

How are KAA Gent playing?

KAA Gent have 8 wins, 8 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 20 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, W, W, newest first.

What is the best bet for Braga vs KAA Gent?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.30, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Braga against KAA Gent. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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