Predictions › Portugal › Braga vs Sporting CP

Primeira LigaFri 9 Oct, 19:15 Portugal time

Braga vs Sporting CP prediction

Estádio Municipal de Braga

BragaHome

1.04 : 1.30

expected goals

Sporting CPAway

29%Braga

29%Draw

42%Sporting

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.30

Quick answer

Our prediction for Braga vs Sporting CP is Sporting CP to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30.

Prediction: Sporting CP to win
Chance: 42%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Braga 1.0, Sporting CP 1.3
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.30
Both teams to score: 48%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

77% chanceFair price 1.302 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

14% chanceFair price 7.251 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Braga 29%, the draw 29% and Sporting CP 42%. The bookmakers agree and make Sporting CP the favourite at 2.30.
2
Recent form
Braga took 10 points from their last 5 games and Sporting CP took 11 from 5. Sporting CP come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Braga won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Sporting CP won 4 of their last 8 on the road.
4
Goals
Braga score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.1. Sporting CP score 2.5 and let in 1.0. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Braga games and 14 of Sporting CP games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Braga won 0 and Sporting CP won 0 with 2 draws. The last one ended Braga 2, Sporting CP 2.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Bragarecent form+3%
Sportingrecent form+4%

Braga form D W L W WSporting form D D W W WHome edge in this league 20% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Braga vs Sporting CP: Sporting CP shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Braga host Sporting CP in the Primeira Liga on Fri 9 Oct, 19:15 at Estádio Municipal de Braga. Our prediction for Braga vs Sporting CP is Sporting CP to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30.

Braga form

Braga have 9 wins, 7 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 23 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, W, W, newest first.

Sporting CP form

Sporting CP have 12 wins, 6 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 50 goals scored and 20 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 0 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read D, D, W, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Braga won 0, Sporting CP won 0 and 2 games ended level. Last time out it finished Braga 2, Sporting CP 2.

Our call

We expect Braga to score about 1.0 goals and Sporting CP about 1.3. That points to Sporting CP to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.25.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Braga	Sporting
Games played	20	20
Wins	9	12
Draws	7	6
Losses	4	2
Goals scored	31	50
Goals conceded	23	20
Scored per game	1.6	2.5
Conceded per game	1.1	1.0
Home record	5W 4D 1L	8W 2D 2L
Away record	4W 3D 3L	4W 4D 0L
Clean sheets	35%	30%
Both teams scored	65%	65%
Over 2.5 goals	60%	70%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Braga to win	28%	3.59	3.20	-10.8%
A Draw	28%	3.54	3.05	-13.8%
Sporting CP to win	39%	2.59	2.30	-11.1%
Over 1.5 goals	59%	1.69	1.57	-6.8%
Under 1.5 goals	36%	2.79	2.20	-21.0%
Braga +0.5	55%	1.81	1.56	-13.9%
Sporting CP -0.5	38%	2.60	2.20	-15.5%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	69%	1.46
Over 2.5 goals	41%	2.41
Over 3.5 goals	21%	4.78
Both teams to score	48%	2.09
Braga or Draw	58%	1.72
Sporting CP or Draw	71%	1.41
Braga to win and Over 2.5	14%	6.90
Sporting CP to win and Over 2.5	22%	4.57
Braga clean sheet	27%	3.68
Sporting CP clean sheet	35%	2.83

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.8%

0-111.7%

0-010.4%

1-09.2%

1-28.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Braga vs Sporting CP?

Our prediction for Braga vs Sporting CP is Sporting CP to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30.

What is the score prediction for Braga vs Sporting CP?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 0-0. We expect Braga to score 1.0 goals and Sporting CP 1.3.

Will both teams score in Braga vs Sporting CP?

Both teams to score has a 48% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Braga last 20 games and 13 of Sporting CP last 20.

How are Braga playing?

How are Sporting CP playing?

What happened when Braga and Sporting CP last met?

It ended Braga 2, Sporting CP 2. In the last 2 meetings Braga won 0 and Sporting CP won 0.

What is the best bet for Braga vs Sporting CP?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.30, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Braga against Sporting. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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