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Predictions › United States › Buffalo Sabres vs Tampa Bay Lightning
NHLSun 22 Nov, 17:00 United States time

Buffalo Sabres vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction

Benchmark International Arena

Buffalo SabresAway
3.0 : 3.3
projected goals
Tampa Bay LightningHome
49%Sabres
51%Lightning
Eagle safe pickUnder 8 goals
-427

Quick answer

Our prediction for Buffalo Sabres vs Tampa Bay Lightning is Tampa Bay Lightning to win, with a 51% chance, but it is a close call. We project Buffalo Sabres 3.0 and Tampa Bay Lightning 3.3. Our best bet is Under 8 goals at -427.

Prediction
Tampa Bay Lightning to win
Chance
51%
Projected score
Buffalo Sabres 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Projected total
6.2 goals
Best bet
Under 8 goals at -427

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 8 goals
81% chanceFair price -4272 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Sabres to win
43% chanceFair price +1351 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Tampa Bay Lightning 51% and Buffalo Sabres 49%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Tampa Bay Lightning won 4 of their last 5 and Buffalo Sabres won 1 of their last 5. Tampa Bay Lightning come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Tampa Bay Lightning won 8 of their last 8 games at home. Buffalo Sabres won 4 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Tampa Bay Lightning score 3.9 goals a game and let in 3.0. Buffalo Sabres score 2.8 and let in 3.5. Their recent games average 6.8 and 6.3 goals in total.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 5 meetings, Tampa Bay Lightning won 2 and Buffalo Sabres won 3. The last one ended Buffalo Sabres 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 8.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 8 goals has a 81% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Lightningrest between games-5%
  • Sabresrest between games-5%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Buffalo Sabres vs Tampa Bay Lightning: Tampa Bay Lightning shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Tampa Bay Lightning host Buffalo Sabres in the NHL on Sun 22 Nov, 17:00 at Benchmark International Arena. Our prediction for Buffalo Sabres vs Tampa Bay Lightning is Tampa Bay Lightning to win, with a 51% chance, but it is a close call. We project Buffalo Sabres 3.0 and Tampa Bay Lightning 3.3. Our best bet is Under 8 goals at -427.

Tampa Bay Lightning form

Tampa Bay Lightning have 14 wins and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 77 goals scored and 59 conceded. At home they have 8 wins and 0 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, W, newest first.

Buffalo Sabres form

Buffalo Sabres have 8 wins and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 56 goals scored and 71 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 5 times in our records. Tampa Bay Lightning won 2, Buffalo Sabres won 3. Last time out it finished Buffalo Sabres 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 8.

Our call

We expect Buffalo Sabres to score about 3.0 goals and Tampa Bay Lightning about 3.3. That points to Tampa Bay Lightning to win. Our safest bet is Under 8 goals at -427. Our bold bet is Sabres to win at +135.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

LightningSabres
Games played2020
Wins148
Losses612
Goals scored7756
Goals conceded5971
Scored per game3.92.8
Conceded per game3.03.5
Home record8W 0L4W 7L
Away record6W 6L4W 5L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Spread and total at every line

Lightning spreadCoversFair
Lightning -1.530%+228
Lightning -0.546%+116
Lightning +0.563%-168
Total goalsOverUnder
5.562%38%
6.545%55%
7.529%71%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Lightning +3.5 wins if Lightning win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Latest news on these teams

All news
NHL

Kucherov Sets Up Two Goals in Lightning Victory After Trade Request

Nikita Kucherov recorded two assists as the Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Detroit Red Wings 4-2 on Tuesday.

4 Nov 2026
NHL

Nikita Kucherov Requests Trade Away From Tampa Bay Lightning

Lightning star forward Nikita Kucherov has requested a trade after contract negotiations stalled on Friday.

31 Oct 2026
NHL

Nikita Kucherov Takes Top Spot on Lightning All Time Scoring List

Nikita Kucherov surpassed Steven Stamkos to become Tampa Bay's all time scoring leader on Saturday night against Utah.

25 Oct 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Buffalo Sabres vs Tampa Bay Lightning?

Our prediction for Buffalo Sabres vs Tampa Bay Lightning is Tampa Bay Lightning to win, with a 51% chance, but it is a close call. We project Buffalo Sabres 3.0 and Tampa Bay Lightning 3.3. Our best bet is Under 8 goals at -427.

What is the projected score for Buffalo Sabres vs Tampa Bay Lightning?

We project Buffalo Sabres 3.0 and Tampa Bay Lightning 3.3, about 6.2 goals in total.

How are Tampa Bay Lightning playing?

Tampa Bay Lightning have 14 wins and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 77 goals scored and 59 conceded. At home they have 8 wins and 0 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, W, newest first.

How are Buffalo Sabres playing?

Buffalo Sabres have 8 wins and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 56 goals scored and 71 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, W, L, newest first.

What happened when Tampa Bay Lightning and Buffalo Sabres last met?

It ended Buffalo Sabres 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 8. In the last 5 meetings Tampa Bay Lightning won 2 and Buffalo Sabres won 3.

What is the best bet for Buffalo Sabres vs Tampa Bay Lightning?

Under 8 goals at -427, with a 81% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Lightning against Sabres. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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