Predictions › Spain › Burgos vs Castellón

LaLiga 2Sun 1 Nov, 17:30 Spain time

Burgos vs Castellón prediction

Estadio Municipal de El Plantío

BurgosHome

1.00 : 1.05

expected goals

CastellónAway

33%Burgos

32%Draw

35%Castellón

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.19

Quick answer

Our prediction for Burgos vs Castellón is Castellón to win, with a 35% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.19.

Prediction: Castellón to win
Chance: 35%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Burgos 1.0, Castellón 1.1
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.19
Both teams to score: 42%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

84% chanceFair price 1.192 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

14% chanceFair price 6.981 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Burgos 33%, the draw 32% and Castellón 35%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Burgos took 9 points from their last 5 games and Castellón took 10 from 5. Castellón come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Burgos won 6 of their last 11 games at home. Castellón won 7 of their last 11 on the road.
4
Goals
Burgos score 1.2 goals a game and let in 0.8. Castellón score 1.8 and let in 0.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of Burgos games and 10 of Castellón games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Burgos won 0 and Castellón won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Castellón 3, Burgos 1.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 84% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Castellónrecent form+3%

Burgos form D L L W WCastellón form W L D W WHome edge in this league 23% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Burgos vs Castellón: Castellón shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Burgos host Castellón in the LaLiga 2 on Sun 1 Nov, 17:30 at Estadio Municipal de El Plantío. Our prediction for Burgos vs Castellón is Castellón to win, with a 35% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.19.

Burgos form

Burgos have 10 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 17 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, W, newest first.

Castellón form

Castellón have 11 wins, 6 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 18 conceded. Away from home they have 7 wins, 2 draws and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Burgos won 0, Castellón won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Castellón 3, Burgos 1.

Our call

We expect Burgos to score about 1.0 goals and Castellón about 1.1. That points to Castellón to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.19. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 6.98.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Burgos	Castellón
Games played	20	20
Wins	10	11
Draws	6	6
Losses	4	3
Goals scored	24	35
Goals conceded	17	18
Scored per game	1.2	1.8
Conceded per game	0.8	0.9
Home record	6W 4D 1L	4W 4D 1L
Away record	4W 2D 3L	7W 2D 2L
Clean sheets	45%	35%
Both teams scored	45%	60%
Over 2.5 goals	35%	50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	61%	1.63
Over 2.5 goals	34%	2.98
Over 3.5 goals	15%	6.60
Both teams to score	42%	2.39
Burgos or Draw	65%	1.54
Castellón or Draw	67%	1.49
Burgos to win and Over 2.5	14%	7.04
Castellón to win and Over 2.5	15%	6.49
Burgos clean sheet	35%	2.85
Castellón clean sheet	37%	2.72

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-114.3%

0-013.7%

0-112.7%

1-012.1%

0-27.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Burgos vs Castellón?

Our prediction for Burgos vs Castellón is Castellón to win, with a 35% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.19.

What is the score prediction for Burgos vs Castellón?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-0 and 0-1. We expect Burgos to score 1.0 goals and Castellón 1.1.

Will both teams score in Burgos vs Castellón?

Both teams to score has a 42% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Burgos last 20 games and 12 of Castellón last 20.

How are Burgos playing?

How are Castellón playing?

What happened when Burgos and Castellón last met?

It ended Castellón 3, Burgos 1. In the last 2 meetings Burgos won 0 and Castellón won 1.

What is the best bet for Burgos vs Castellón?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.19, with a 84% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Burgos against Castellón. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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