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Predictions › Spain › Burgos vs CD Sabadell
LaLiga 2Sun 18 Oct, 19:00 Spain time

Burgos vs CD Sabadell prediction

Estadio Municipal de El Plantío

BurgosHome
1.17 : 0.55
expected goals
CD SabadellAway
51%Burgos
33%Draw
17%CD Sabadell
Eagle safe pickBurgos or Draw
1.24

Quick answer

Our prediction for Burgos vs CD Sabadell is Burgos to win, with a 51% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Burgos or Draw at 1.24.

Prediction
Burgos to win
Chance
51%
Most likely score
1-0
Expected goals
Burgos 1.2, CD Sabadell 0.6
Best bet
Burgos or Draw at 1.24
Both teams to score
30%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Burgos or Draw
81% chanceFair price 1.242 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-0
20% chanceFair price 4.921 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Burgos 51%, the draw 33% and CD Sabadell 17%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Burgos took 10 points from their last 5 games and CD Sabadell took 8 from 5. Burgos come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Burgos won 6 of their last 10 games at home. CD Sabadell won 0 of their last 4 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Burgos score 1.4 goals a game and let in 0.8. CD Sabadell score 1.0 and let in 0.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Burgos games and 2 of CD Sabadell games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Burgos or Draw has a 81% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Burgosrecent form+3%
  • CD Sabadellrecent form+1%
Burgos form L W W W DCD Sabadell form D D W L WHome edge in this league 22% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Burgos vs CD Sabadell: Burgos are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Burgos host CD Sabadell in the LaLiga 2 on Sun 18 Oct, 19:00 at Estadio Municipal de El Plantío. Our prediction for Burgos vs CD Sabadell is Burgos to win, with a 51% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Burgos or Draw at 1.24.

Burgos form

Burgos have 11 wins, 6 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 16 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 4 draws and 0 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, D, newest first.

CD Sabadell form

CD Sabadell have 3 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss in their last 8 games, with 8 goals scored and 6 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 4. Their last 5 results read D, D, W, L, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect Burgos to score about 1.2 goals and CD Sabadell about 0.6. That points to Burgos to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Burgos or Draw at 1.24. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-0 at 4.92.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

BurgosCD Sabadell
Games played208
Wins113
Draws64
Losses31
Goals scored288
Goals conceded166
Scored per game1.41.0
Conceded per game0.80.8
Home record6W 4D 0L3W 1D 0L
Away record5W 2D 3L0W 3D 1L
Clean sheets50%50%
Both teams scored45%38%
Over 2.5 goals40%25%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals52%1.93
Over 2.5 goals25%4.05
Over 3.5 goals10%10.46
Both teams to score30%3.37
Burgos or Draw83%1.20
CD Sabadell or Draw49%2.03
Burgos to win and Over 2.518%5.56
CD Sabadell to win and Over 2.55%21.00
Burgos clean sheet58%1.73
CD Sabadell clean sheet31%3.22

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-020.3%
0-018.7%
2-012.3%
1-112.2%
0-19.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Burgos vs CD Sabadell?

Our prediction for Burgos vs CD Sabadell is Burgos to win, with a 51% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Burgos or Draw at 1.24.

What is the score prediction for Burgos vs CD Sabadell?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 0-0 and 2-0. We expect Burgos to score 1.2 goals and CD Sabadell 0.6.

Will both teams score in Burgos vs CD Sabadell?

Both teams to score has a 30% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Burgos last 20 games and 3 of CD Sabadell last 8.

How are Burgos playing?

Burgos have 11 wins, 6 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 16 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 4 draws and 0 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, D, newest first.

How are CD Sabadell playing?

CD Sabadell have 3 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss in their last 8 games, with 8 goals scored and 6 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 4. Their last 5 results read D, D, W, L, W, newest first.

What is the best bet for Burgos vs CD Sabadell?

Burgos or Draw at 1.24, with a 81% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Burgos against CD Sabadell. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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