Predictions › United Kingdom › Burnley vs Wolverhampton Wanderers

ChampionshipFri 16 Oct, 20:00 United Kingdom time

Burnley vs Wolverhampton Wanderers prediction

Turf Moor

BurnleyHome

1.45 : 1.69

expected goals

Wolverhampton WanderersAway

32%Burnley

25%Draw

43%Wolves

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1/4

Quick answer

Our prediction for Burnley vs Wolverhampton Wanderers is Wolverhampton Wanderers to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/4.

Prediction: Wolverhampton Wanderers to win
Chance: 43%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Burnley 1.4, Wolverhampton Wanderers 1.7
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1/4
Both teams to score: 63%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

80% chanceFair price 1/42 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Wolverhampton Wanderers to win and Over 2.5

30% chanceFair price 12/51 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Burnley 32%, the draw 25% and Wolverhampton Wanderers 43%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Burnley took 3 points from their last 5 games and Wolverhampton Wanderers took 7 from 5. Wolverhampton Wanderers come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Burnley won 0 of their last 10 games at home. Wolverhampton Wanderers won 3 of their last 11 on the road.
4
Goals
Burnley score 0.8 goals a game and let in 1.9. Wolverhampton Wanderers score 1.4 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Burnley games and 12 of Wolverhampton Wanderers games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Burnley won 1 and Wolverhampton Wanderers won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Burnley 1, Wolverhampton Wanderers 1.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Burnleyrecent form-3%

Burnley form D L D L DWolves form W L W D LHome edge in this league 20% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Burnley vs Wolverhampton Wanderers: Wolverhampton Wanderers shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Burnley host Wolverhampton Wanderers in the Championship on Fri 16 Oct, 20:00 at Turf Moor. Our prediction for Burnley vs Wolverhampton Wanderers is Wolverhampton Wanderers to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/4.

Burnley form

Burnley have 0 wins, 9 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 16 goals scored and 37 conceded. At home they have 0 wins, 7 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, L, D, newest first.

Wolverhampton Wanderers form

Wolverhampton Wanderers have 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 31 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Burnley won 1, Wolverhampton Wanderers won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Burnley 1, Wolverhampton Wanderers 1.

Our call

We expect Burnley to score about 1.4 goals and Wolverhampton Wanderers about 1.7. That points to Wolverhampton Wanderers to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/4. Our bold bet is Wolverhampton Wanderers to win and Over 2.5 at 12/5.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Burnley	Wolves
Games played	20	20
Wins	0	7
Draws	9	6
Losses	11	7
Goals scored	16	28
Goals conceded	37	31
Scored per game	0.8	1.4
Conceded per game	1.9	1.6
Home record	0W 7D 3L	4W 3D 2L
Away record	0W 2D 8L	3W 3D 5L
Clean sheets	10%	20%
Both teams scored	70%	55%
Over 2.5 goals	45%	60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	83%	1/5
Over 2.5 goals	61%	4/6
Over 3.5 goals	38%	8/5
Both teams to score	63%	4/7
Burnley or Draw	57%	8/11
Wolverhampton Wanderers or Draw	68%	1/2
Burnley to win and Over 2.5	22%	7/2
Wolverhampton Wanderers to win and Over 2.5	30%	12/5
Burnley clean sheet	18%	9/2
Wolverhampton Wanderers clean sheet	23%	10/3

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.2%

1-29.0%

2-17.7%

0-16.7%

2-26.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Burnley vs Wolverhampton Wanderers?

What is the score prediction for Burnley vs Wolverhampton Wanderers?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 2-1. We expect Burnley to score 1.4 goals and Wolverhampton Wanderers 1.7.

Will both teams score in Burnley vs Wolverhampton Wanderers?

Both teams to score has a 63% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of Burnley last 20 games and 11 of Wolverhampton Wanderers last 20.

How are Burnley playing?

How are Wolverhampton Wanderers playing?

What happened when Burnley and Wolverhampton Wanderers last met?

It ended Burnley 1, Wolverhampton Wanderers 1. In the last 2 meetings Burnley won 1 and Wolverhampton Wanderers won 0.

What is the best bet for Burnley vs Wolverhampton Wanderers?

Over 1.5 goals at 1/4, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Burnley against Wolves. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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