Predictions › United Kingdom › Burton Albion vs Luton Town

League OneSat 21 Nov, 15:00 United Kingdom time

Burton Albion vs Luton Town prediction

Pirelli Stadium

Burton AlbionHome

1.56 : 1.66

expected goals

Luton TownAway

36%Burton Albion

25%Draw

40%Luton

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1/5

Quick answer

Our prediction for Burton Albion vs Luton Town is Luton Town to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/5.

Prediction: Luton Town to win
Chance: 40%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Burton Albion 1.6, Luton Town 1.7
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1/5
Both teams to score: 65%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

83% chanceFair price 1/52 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Luton Town to win and Over 2.5

28% chanceFair price 13/51 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Burton Albion 36%, the draw 25% and Luton Town 40%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Burton Albion took 8 points from their last 5 games and Luton Town took 13 from 5. Luton Town come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Burton Albion won 4 of their last 11 games at home. Luton Town won 6 of their last 11 on the road.
4
Goals
Burton Albion score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.4. Luton Town score 1.9 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Burton Albion games and 12 of Luton Town games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Burton Albion won 0 and Luton Town won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Luton Town 1, Burton Albion 1.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 83% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Burton Albionrecent form+1%
Lutonrecent form+4%

Burton Albion form D W L W DLuton form D D W W WHome edge in this league 22% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Burton Albion vs Luton Town: Luton Town shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Burton Albion host Luton Town in the League One on Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 at Pirelli Stadium. Our prediction for Burton Albion vs Luton Town is Luton Town to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/5.

Burton Albion form

Burton Albion have 6 wins, 8 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 5 draws and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, D, D, newest first.

Luton Town form

Luton Town have 12 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 39 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Burton Albion won 0, Luton Town won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Luton Town 1, Burton Albion 1.

Our call

We expect Burton Albion to score about 1.6 goals and Luton Town about 1.7. That points to Luton Town to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/5. Our bold bet is Luton Town to win and Over 2.5 at 13/5.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Burton Albion	Luton
Games played	20	20
Wins	6	12
Draws	8	3
Losses	6	5
Goals scored	28	39
Goals conceded	27	26
Scored per game	1.4	1.9
Conceded per game	1.4	1.3
Home record	4W 5D 2L	6W 2D 1L
Away record	2W 3D 4L	6W 1D 4L
Clean sheets	20%	25%
Both teams scored	65%	65%
Over 2.5 goals	60%	60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	84%	1/5
Over 2.5 goals	62%	8/13
Over 3.5 goals	40%	6/4
Both teams to score	65%	8/15
Burton Albion or Draw	60%	4/6
Luton Town or Draw	64%	8/15
Burton Albion to win and Over 2.5	25%	3/1
Luton Town to win and Over 2.5	28%	5/2
Burton Albion clean sheet	19%	9/2
Luton Town clean sheet	21%	4/1

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.0%

1-28.6%

2-18.1%

2-26.7%

0-16.0%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news

League One

Wilshere Clashes With Stendel Following Luton Win Over Barnsley

Jack Wilshere pushed Barnsley manager Daniel Stendel after Luton Town secured a 2-1 victory on Tuesday night, sparking a scuffle on the pitch.

21 Oct 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Burton Albion vs Luton Town?

Our prediction for Burton Albion vs Luton Town is Luton Town to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/5.

What is the score prediction for Burton Albion vs Luton Town?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 2-1. We expect Burton Albion to score 1.6 goals and Luton Town 1.7.

Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Luton Town?

Both teams to score has a 65% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Burton Albion last 20 games and 13 of Luton Town last 20.

How are Burton Albion playing?

How are Luton Town playing?

What happened when Burton Albion and Luton Town last met?

It ended Luton Town 1, Burton Albion 1. In the last 1 meeting Burton Albion won 0 and Luton Town won 0.

What is the best bet for Burton Albion vs Luton Town?

Over 1.5 goals at 1/5, with a 83% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Burton Albion against Luton. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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