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Predictions › Portugal › C.D. Nacional vs Braga
Primeira LigaSun 25 Oct, 18:00 Portugal time

C.D. Nacional vs Braga prediction

Estádio da Madeira

C.D. NacionalHome
1.11 : 1.72
expected goals
BragaAway
24%Nacional
25%Draw
51%Braga
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.30

Quick answer

Our prediction for C.D. Nacional vs Braga is Braga to win, with a 51% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

Prediction
Braga to win
Chance
51%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
C.D. Nacional 1.1, Braga 1.7
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.30
Both teams to score
56%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
77% chanceFair price 1.302 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Braga to win and Over 2.5
31% chanceFair price 3.201 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives C.D. Nacional 24%, the draw 25% and Braga 51%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    C.D. Nacional took 0 points from their last 5 games and Braga took 4 from 5. Braga come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    C.D. Nacional won 4 of their last 10 games at home. Braga won 4 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    C.D. Nacional score 0.9 goals a game and let in 1.6. Braga score 1.4 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of C.D. Nacional games and 12 of Braga games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, C.D. Nacional won 1 and Braga won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended C.D. Nacional 1, Braga 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Nacionalrecent form-6%
  • Bragarecent form-1%
Nacional form D L L L LBraga form D L D W LHome edge in this league 19% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

C.D. Nacional vs Braga: Braga are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

C.D. Nacional host Braga in the Primeira Liga on Sun 25 Oct, 18:00 at Estádio da Madeira. Our prediction for C.D. Nacional vs Braga is Braga to win, with a 51% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

C.D. Nacional form

C.D. Nacional have 5 wins, 2 draws and 13 losses in their last 20 games, with 19 goals scored and 32 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 0 draws and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, L, newest first.

Braga form

Braga have 8 wins, 7 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. C.D. Nacional won 1, Braga won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished C.D. Nacional 1, Braga 2.

Our call

We expect C.D. Nacional to score about 1.1 goals and Braga about 1.7. That points to Braga to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30. Our bold bet is Braga to win and Over 2.5 at 3.20.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

NacionalBraga
Games played2020
Wins58
Draws27
Losses135
Goals scored1927
Goals conceded3227
Scored per game0.91.4
Conceded per game1.61.4
Home record4W 0D 6L4W 4D 1L
Away record1W 2D 7L4W 3D 4L
Clean sheets25%30%
Both teams scored35%65%
Over 2.5 goals40%60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals78%1.28
Over 2.5 goals54%1.86
Over 3.5 goals32%3.17
Both teams to score56%1.79
C.D. Nacional or Draw49%2.04
Braga or Draw76%1.31
C.D. Nacional to win and Over 2.514%6.94
Braga to win and Over 2.533%3.05
C.D. Nacional clean sheet18%5.58
Braga clean sheet33%3.04

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.9%
1-29.7%
0-19.4%
0-28.7%
0-06.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win C.D. Nacional vs Braga?

Our prediction for C.D. Nacional vs Braga is Braga to win, with a 51% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

What is the score prediction for C.D. Nacional vs Braga?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 0-1. We expect C.D. Nacional to score 1.1 goals and Braga 1.7.

Will both teams score in C.D. Nacional vs Braga?

Both teams to score has a 56% chance. Both sides scored in 7 of C.D. Nacional last 20 games and 13 of Braga last 20.

How are C.D. Nacional playing?

C.D. Nacional have 5 wins, 2 draws and 13 losses in their last 20 games, with 19 goals scored and 32 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 0 draws and 6 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, L, newest first.

How are Braga playing?

Braga have 8 wins, 7 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, W, L, newest first.

What happened when C.D. Nacional and Braga last met?

It ended C.D. Nacional 1, Braga 2. In the last 2 meetings C.D. Nacional won 1 and Braga won 1.

What is the best bet for C.D. Nacional vs Braga?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.30, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Nacional against Braga. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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