Predictions › Italy › Cagliari vs Bologna

Serie ASat 24 Oct, 13:00 Italy time

Cagliari vs Bologna prediction

Unipol Domus

CagliariHome

1.11 : 1.25

expected goals

BolognaAway

32%Cagliari

29%Draw

39%Bologna

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.30

Quick answer

Our prediction for Cagliari vs Bologna is Bologna to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30.

Prediction: Bologna to win
Chance: 39%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Cagliari 1.1, Bologna 1.3
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.30
Both teams to score: 49%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

77% chanceFair price 1.302 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

14% chanceFair price 7.201 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Cagliari 32%, the draw 29% and Bologna 39%. The bookmakers agree and make Bologna the favourite at 2.35.
2
Recent form
Cagliari took 10 points from their last 5 games and Bologna took 5 from 5. Cagliari come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Cagliari won 4 of their last 11 games at home. Bologna won 6 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Cagliari score 0.9 goals a game and let in 1.1. Bologna score 1.1 and let in 1.5. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Cagliari games and 8 of Bologna games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Cagliari won 0 and Bologna won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Bologna 0, Cagliari 0.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Cagliarirecent form+3%
Bolognarecent form-3%
Cagliarirest between games-2%

Cagliari form D W W W LBologna form D D L D LHome edge in this league 12% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Cagliari vs Bologna: Bologna shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Cagliari host Bologna in the Serie A on Sat 24 Oct, 13:00 at Unipol Domus. Our prediction for Cagliari vs Bologna is Bologna to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30.

Cagliari form

Cagliari have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 18 goals scored and 23 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, W, L, newest first.

Bologna form

Bologna have 7 wins, 5 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins, 0 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Cagliari won 0, Bologna won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Bologna 0, Cagliari 0.

Our call

We expect Cagliari to score about 1.1 goals and Bologna about 1.3. That points to Bologna to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.20.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Cagliari	Bologna
Games played	20	20
Wins	8	7
Draws	4	5
Losses	8	8
Goals scored	18	23
Goals conceded	23	30
Scored per game	0.9	1.1
Conceded per game	1.1	1.5
Home record	4W 2D 5L	1W 5D 4L
Away record	4W 2D 3L	6W 0D 4L
Clean sheets	30%	20%
Both teams scored	45%	45%
Over 2.5 goals	40%	40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Cagliari to win	30%	3.36	3.00	-10.7%
A Draw	27%	3.66	2.90	-20.8%
Bologna to win	38%	2.60	2.35	-9.6%
Over 2.5 goals	43%	2.32	2.10	-9.4%
Under 2.5 goals	53%	1.90	1.67	-12.2%
Cagliari +0.5	56%	1.79	1.51	-15.3%
Bologna -0.5	40%	2.52	2.25	-10.5%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	69%	1.45
Over 2.5 goals	42%	2.38
Over 3.5 goals	21%	4.70
Both teams to score	49%	2.06
Cagliari or Draw	61%	1.63
Bologna or Draw	68%	1.47
Cagliari to win and Over 2.5	16%	6.13
Bologna to win and Over 2.5	20%	4.92
Cagliari clean sheet	29%	3.49
Bologna clean sheet	33%	3.03

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.9%

0-111.0%

0-010.2%

1-09.7%

1-28.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Cagliari vs Bologna?

Our prediction for Cagliari vs Bologna is Bologna to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30.

What is the score prediction for Cagliari vs Bologna?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 0-0. We expect Cagliari to score 1.1 goals and Bologna 1.3.

Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Bologna?

Both teams to score has a 49% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Cagliari last 20 games and 9 of Bologna last 20.

How are Cagliari playing?

How are Bologna playing?

What happened when Cagliari and Bologna last met?

It ended Bologna 0, Cagliari 0. In the last 2 meetings Cagliari won 0 and Bologna won 1.

What is the best bet for Cagliari vs Bologna?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.30, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Cagliari against Bologna. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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