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Predictions › Italy › Cagliari vs Frosinone
Serie ASat 7 Nov, 14:00 Italy time

Cagliari vs Frosinone prediction

Unipol Domus

CagliariHome
1.22 : 1.56
expected goals
FrosinoneAway
29%Cagliari
26%Draw
44%Frosinone
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.29

Quick answer

Our prediction for Cagliari vs Frosinone is Frosinone to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29.

Prediction
Frosinone to win
Chance
44%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Cagliari 1.2, Frosinone 1.6
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.29
Both teams to score
56%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
78% chanceFair price 1.292 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Frosinone to win and Over 2.5
27% chanceFair price 3.701 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Cagliari 29%, the draw 26% and Frosinone 44%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Cagliari took 4 points from their last 5 games and Frosinone took 8 from 5. Frosinone come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Cagliari won 4 of their last 10 games at home. Frosinone won 4 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Cagliari score 0.9 goals a game and let in 1.5. Frosinone score 2.3 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Cagliari games and 14 of Frosinone games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Cagliarirecent form-1%
  • Frosinonerecent form+1%
  • Cagliarirest between games-5%
Cagliari form D L L D WFrosinone form D W L W DHome edge in this league 10% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Cagliari vs Frosinone: Frosinone shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Cagliari host Frosinone in the Serie A on Sat 7 Nov, 14:00 at Unipol Domus. Our prediction for Cagliari vs Frosinone is Frosinone to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29.

Cagliari form

Cagliari have 8 wins, 2 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 19 goals scored and 30 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, D, W, newest first.

Frosinone form

Frosinone have 12 wins, 6 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 45 goals scored and 23 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, W, D, newest first.

Our call

We expect Cagliari to score about 1.2 goals and Frosinone about 1.6. That points to Frosinone to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29. Our bold bet is Frosinone to win and Over 2.5 at 3.70.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

CagliariFrosinone
Games played2020
Wins812
Draws26
Losses102
Goals scored1945
Goals conceded3023
Scored per game0.92.3
Conceded per game1.51.1
Home record4W 1D 5L8W 2D 1L
Away record4W 1D 5L4W 4D 1L
Clean sheets25%35%
Both teams scored45%55%
Over 2.5 goals50%70%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals77%1.29
Over 2.5 goals53%1.90
Over 3.5 goals30%3.30
Both teams to score56%1.77
Cagliari or Draw56%1.80
Frosinone or Draw71%1.41
Cagliari to win and Over 2.518%5.67
Frosinone to win and Over 2.528%3.58
Cagliari clean sheet21%4.75
Frosinone clean sheet30%3.39

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.5%
1-29.2%
0-19.0%
0-27.5%
2-17.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Cagliari vs Frosinone?

Our prediction for Cagliari vs Frosinone is Frosinone to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29.

What is the score prediction for Cagliari vs Frosinone?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 0-1. We expect Cagliari to score 1.2 goals and Frosinone 1.6.

Will both teams score in Cagliari vs Frosinone?

Both teams to score has a 56% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Cagliari last 20 games and 11 of Frosinone last 20.

How are Cagliari playing?

Cagliari have 8 wins, 2 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 19 goals scored and 30 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, D, W, newest first.

How are Frosinone playing?

Frosinone have 12 wins, 6 draws and 2 losses in their last 20 games, with 45 goals scored and 23 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, W, D, newest first.

What is the best bet for Cagliari vs Frosinone?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.29, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Cagliari against Frosinone. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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