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Predictions › United Kingdom › Cardiff City vs Watford
ChampionshipTue 13 Oct, 19:45 United Kingdom time

Cardiff City vs Watford prediction

Cardiff City Stadium

Cardiff CityHome
1.76 : 0.87
expected goals
WatfordAway
58%Cardiff
25%Draw
18%Watford
Eagle safe pickCardiff City or Draw
1/4

Quick answer

Our prediction for Cardiff City vs Watford is Cardiff City to win, with a 58% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Cardiff City or Draw at 1/4.

Prediction
Cardiff City to win
Chance
58%
Most likely score
1-0
Expected goals
Cardiff City 1.8, Watford 0.9
Best bet
Cardiff City or Draw at 1/4
Both teams to score
49%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Cardiff City or Draw
80% chanceFair price 1/42 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Cardiff City to win and Over 2.5
33% chanceFair price 2/11 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Cardiff City 58%, the draw 25% and Watford 18%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Cardiff City took 4 points from their last 5 games and Watford took 3 from 5. Cardiff City come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Cardiff City won 5 of their last 11 games at home. Watford won 0 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Cardiff City score 1.8 goals a game and let in 1.4. Watford score 0.8 and let in 1.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Cardiff City games and 10 of Watford games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Cardiff City or Draw has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Cardiffrecent form-3%
  • Watfordrecent form-4%
Cardiff form W L D L LWatford form L L W L LHome edge in this league 20% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Cardiff City vs Watford: Cardiff City are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Cardiff City host Watford in the Championship on Tue 13 Oct, 19:45 at Cardiff City Stadium. Our prediction for Cardiff City vs Watford is Cardiff City to win, with a 58% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Cardiff City or Draw at 1/4.

Cardiff City form

Cardiff City have 7 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, L, L, newest first.

Watford form

Watford have 4 wins, 4 draws and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 16 goals scored and 38 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 1 draw and 8 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect Cardiff City to score about 1.8 goals and Watford about 0.9. That points to Cardiff City to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Cardiff City or Draw at 1/4. Our bold bet is Cardiff City to win and Over 2.5 at 2/1.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

CardiffWatford
Games played2020
Wins74
Draws74
Losses612
Goals scored3516
Goals conceded2738
Scored per game1.80.8
Conceded per game1.41.9
Home record5W 4D 2L4W 3D 4L
Away record2W 3D 4L0W 1D 8L
Clean sheets20%10%
Both teams scored65%55%
Over 2.5 goals50%50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals74%1/3
Over 2.5 goals49%21/20
Over 3.5 goals27%11/4
Both teams to score49%21/20
Cardiff City or Draw82%2/9
Watford or Draw42%11/8
Cardiff City to win and Over 2.534%15/8
Watford to win and Over 2.59%10/1
Cardiff City clean sheet42%11/8
Watford clean sheet17%5/1

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-012.0%
1-111.7%
2-011.2%
2-19.7%
0-07.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Cardiff City vs Watford?

Our prediction for Cardiff City vs Watford is Cardiff City to win, with a 58% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Cardiff City or Draw at 1/4.

What is the score prediction for Cardiff City vs Watford?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 2-0. We expect Cardiff City to score 1.8 goals and Watford 0.9.

Will both teams score in Cardiff City vs Watford?

Both teams to score has a 49% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Cardiff City last 20 games and 11 of Watford last 20.

How are Cardiff City playing?

Cardiff City have 7 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, L, L, newest first.

How are Watford playing?

Watford have 4 wins, 4 draws and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 16 goals scored and 38 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 1 draw and 8 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, L, newest first.

What is the best bet for Cardiff City vs Watford?

Cardiff City or Draw at 1/4, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Cardiff against Watford. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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