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Predictions › Italy › Carrarese vs Arezzo
Serie BWed 28 Oct, 19:00 Italy time

Carrarese vs Arezzo prediction

Dei Marmi

CarrareseHome
1.29 : 1.03
expected goals
ArezzoAway
42%Carrarese
29%Draw
29%Arezzo
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.27

Quick answer

Our prediction for Carrarese vs Arezzo is Carrarese to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.27.

Prediction
Carrarese to win
Chance
42%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Carrarese 1.3, Arezzo 1.0
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.27
Both teams to score
48%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
79% chanceFair price 1.272 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
14% chanceFair price 7.231 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Carrarese 42%, the draw 29% and Arezzo 29%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Carrarese took 6 points from their last 5 games and Arezzo took 7 from 5. Arezzo come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Carrarese won 3 of their last 11 games at home. Arezzo won 3 of their last 4 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Carrarese score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.2. Arezzo score 1.1 and let in 2.0. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Carrarese games and 5 of Arezzo games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 79% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Carrareserecent form-3%
  • Arezzorecent form-1%
  • Carrareserest between games-5%
  • Arezzorest between games-5%
Carrarese form D W L L LArezzo form D D L W LHome edge in this league 31% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Carrarese vs Arezzo: Carrarese shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Carrarese host Arezzo in the Serie B on Wed 28 Oct, 19:00 at Dei Marmi. Our prediction for Carrarese vs Arezzo is Carrarese to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.27.

Carrarese form

Carrarese have 5 wins, 6 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 24 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, L, L, newest first.

Arezzo form

Arezzo have 3 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses in their last 7 games, with 8 goals scored and 14 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss from 4. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, W, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect Carrarese to score about 1.3 goals and Arezzo about 1.0. That points to Carrarese to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.27. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.23.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

CarrareseArezzo
Games played207
Wins53
Draws61
Losses93
Goals scored228
Goals conceded2414
Scored per game1.11.1
Conceded per game1.22.0
Home record3W 3D 5L0W 1D 2L
Away record2W 3D 4L3W 0D 1L
Clean sheets20%29%
Both teams scored45%57%
Over 2.5 goals40%71%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals68%1.46
Over 2.5 goals41%2.43
Over 3.5 goals21%4.85
Both teams to score48%2.10
Carrarese or Draw71%1.41
Arezzo or Draw58%1.71
Carrarese to win and Over 2.522%4.62
Arezzo to win and Over 2.514%6.95
Carrarese clean sheet36%2.81
Arezzo clean sheet27%3.65

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.8%
1-011.8%
0-010.5%
0-19.3%
2-18.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Carrarese vs Arezzo?

Our prediction for Carrarese vs Arezzo is Carrarese to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.27.

What is the score prediction for Carrarese vs Arezzo?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-0. We expect Carrarese to score 1.3 goals and Arezzo 1.0.

Will both teams score in Carrarese vs Arezzo?

Both teams to score has a 48% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Carrarese last 20 games and 4 of Arezzo last 7.

How are Carrarese playing?

Carrarese have 5 wins, 6 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 24 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, L, L, newest first.

How are Arezzo playing?

Arezzo have 3 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses in their last 7 games, with 8 goals scored and 14 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss from 4. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, W, L, newest first.

What is the best bet for Carrarese vs Arezzo?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.27, with a 79% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Carrarese against Arezzo. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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