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Predictions › Italy › Carrarese vs Modena
Serie BSat 17 Oct, 13:00 Italy time

Carrarese vs Modena prediction

Dei Marmi

CarrareseHome
0.87 : 1.25
expected goals
ModenaAway
25%Carrarese
31%Draw
44%Modena
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.24

Quick answer

Our prediction for Carrarese vs Modena is Modena to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 0-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.24.

Prediction
Modena to win
Chance
44%
Most likely score
0-1
Expected goals
Carrarese 0.9, Modena 1.3
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.24
Both teams to score
42%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
81% chanceFair price 1.242 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 0-1
14% chanceFair price 7.011 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Carrarese 25%, the draw 31% and Modena 44%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Carrarese took 1 point from their last 5 games and Modena took 10 from 5. Modena come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Carrarese won 2 of their last 10 games at home. Modena won 3 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Carrarese score 0.9 goals a game and let in 1.3. Modena score 1.3 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of Carrarese games and 12 of Modena games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Carrarese won 0 and Modena won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Modena 2, Carrarese 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 81% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Carrareserecent form-6%
  • Modenarecent form+3%
Carrarese form L L L D LModena form W D L W WHome edge in this league 32% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Carrarese vs Modena: Modena shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Carrarese host Modena in the Serie B on Sat 17 Oct, 13:00 at Dei Marmi. Our prediction for Carrarese vs Modena is Modena to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 0-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.24.

Carrarese form

Carrarese have 3 wins, 6 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 18 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, D, L, newest first.

Modena form

Modena have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 22 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Carrarese won 0, Modena won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Modena 2, Carrarese 0.

Our call

We expect Carrarese to score about 0.9 goals and Modena about 1.3. That points to Modena to win, with 0-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.24. Our bold bet is Correct score 0-1 at 7.01.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

CarrareseModena
Games played2020
Wins38
Draws64
Losses118
Goals scored1826
Goals conceded2622
Scored per game0.91.3
Conceded per game1.31.1
Home record2W 3D 5L5W 1D 4L
Away record1W 3D 6L3W 3D 4L
Clean sheets15%20%
Both teams scored40%60%
Over 2.5 goals35%60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals63%1.58
Over 2.5 goals35%2.82
Over 3.5 goals16%6.08
Both teams to score42%2.37
Carrarese or Draw56%1.80
Modena or Draw75%1.33
Carrarese to win and Over 2.511%9.29
Modena to win and Over 2.521%4.82
Carrarese clean sheet29%3.49
Modena clean sheet42%2.38

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

0-114.3%
1-113.8%
0-012.8%
1-09.7%
0-29.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Carrarese vs Modena?

Our prediction for Carrarese vs Modena is Modena to win, with a 44% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 0-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.24.

What is the score prediction for Carrarese vs Modena?

0-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 0-0. We expect Carrarese to score 0.9 goals and Modena 1.3.

Will both teams score in Carrarese vs Modena?

Both teams to score has a 42% chance. Both sides scored in 8 of Carrarese last 20 games and 12 of Modena last 20.

How are Carrarese playing?

Carrarese have 3 wins, 6 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 18 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, D, L, newest first.

How are Modena playing?

Modena have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 22 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Carrarese and Modena last met?

It ended Modena 2, Carrarese 0. In the last 2 meetings Carrarese won 0 and Modena won 1.

What is the best bet for Carrarese vs Modena?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.24, with a 81% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Carrarese against Modena. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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