Predictions › Italy › Carrarese vs Virtus Entella

Serie BSat 21 Nov, 14:00 Italy time

Carrarese vs Virtus Entella prediction

Dei Marmi

CarrareseHome

1.26 : 1.03

expected goals

Virtus EntellaAway

41%Carrarese

30%Draw

29%Virtus Entella

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.25

Quick answer

Our prediction for Carrarese vs Virtus Entella is Carrarese to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.25.

Prediction: Carrarese to win
Chance: 41%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Carrarese 1.3, Virtus Entella 1.0
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.25
Both teams to score: 47%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

80% chanceFair price 1.252 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

14% chanceFair price 7.171 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Carrarese 41%, the draw 30% and Virtus Entella 29%. The bookmakers agree and make Carrarese the favourite at 2.40.
2
Recent form
Carrarese took 6 points from their last 5 games and Virtus Entella took 4 from 5. Carrarese come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Carrarese won 4 of their last 10 games at home. Virtus Entella won 2 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Carrarese score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.3. Virtus Entella score 1.0 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Carrarese games and 8 of Virtus Entella games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Carrarese won 1 and Virtus Entella won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Virtus Entella 2, Carrarese 1.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Carrareserecent form-1%
Virtus Entellarecent form-1%

Carrarese form L L W L WVirtus Entella form D L D L WHome edge in this league 28% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Carrarese vs Virtus Entella: Carrarese shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Carrarese host Virtus Entella in the Serie B on Sat 21 Nov, 14:00 at Dei Marmi. Our prediction for Carrarese vs Virtus Entella is Carrarese to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.25.

Carrarese form

Carrarese have 6 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, W, newest first.

Virtus Entella form

Virtus Entella have 5 wins, 6 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Carrarese won 1, Virtus Entella won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Virtus Entella 2, Carrarese 1.

Our call

We expect Carrarese to score about 1.3 goals and Virtus Entella about 1.0. That points to Carrarese to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.25. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.17.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Carrarese	Virtus Entella
Games played	20	20
Wins	6	5
Draws	4	6
Losses	10	9
Goals scored	21	20
Goals conceded	25	25
Scored per game	1.1	1.0
Conceded per game	1.3	1.3
Home record	4W 2D 4L	3W 4D 4L
Away record	2W 2D 6L	2W 2D 5L
Clean sheets	20%	15%
Both teams scored	45%	50%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Carrarese to win	40%	2.52	2.40	-4.8%
A Draw	29%	3.40	3.05	-10.3%
Virtus Entella to win	29%	3.46	3.00	-13.2%
Over 2.5 goals	41%	2.41	2.05	-15.0%
Under 2.5 goals	52%	1.94	1.65	-15.1%
Carrarese -0.5	39%	2.54	2.25	-11.3%
Virtus Entella +0.5	54%	1.87	1.53	-18.3%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	67%	1.48
Over 2.5 goals	40%	2.50
Over 3.5 goals	20%	5.06
Both teams to score	47%	2.14
Carrarese or Draw	71%	1.42
Virtus Entella or Draw	59%	1.69
Carrarese to win and Over 2.5	21%	4.82
Virtus Entella to win and Over 2.5	14%	6.98
Carrarese clean sheet	36%	2.79
Virtus Entella clean sheet	28%	3.52

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.9%

1-012.0%

0-011.0%

0-19.7%

2-18.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Carrarese vs Virtus Entella?

Our prediction for Carrarese vs Virtus Entella is Carrarese to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.25.

What is the score prediction for Carrarese vs Virtus Entella?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-0. We expect Carrarese to score 1.3 goals and Virtus Entella 1.0.

Will both teams score in Carrarese vs Virtus Entella?

Both teams to score has a 47% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Carrarese last 20 games and 10 of Virtus Entella last 20.

How are Carrarese playing?

How are Virtus Entella playing?

What happened when Carrarese and Virtus Entella last met?

It ended Virtus Entella 2, Carrarese 1. In the last 2 meetings Carrarese won 1 and Virtus Entella won 1.

What is the best bet for Carrarese vs Virtus Entella?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.25, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Carrarese against Virtus Entella. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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